Michael Terpin, the early crypto investor often called the “Godfather of Crypto,” says his fund is currently short Bitcoin, betting that BTC has one more move lower before a larger recovery cycle resumes.
During a Consensus Miami interview, Terpin said he still expects Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2033, but argued the current cycle has not fully completed its downside phase. His near-term view is sharply different from the long-term target: BTC could fall from the $80,000 range into the $60,000s, or even the high-$40,000s to mid-$50,000s, before the next major advance.
Terpin said he sees “2-to-1 odds” that Bitcoin trades lower from current levels. His thesis is built around the four-year Bitcoin cycle, the lag between cycle tops and deeper capitulation, and the idea that the market may still need a final washout before a stronger accumulation phase begins.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $81,000 on CoinGecko, with a market cap near $1.62 trillion and daily trading volume above $31 billion. That keeps BTC close to the same liquidity band that has defined recent market action, where failed pushes above $82,000 have been followed by quick reversals.
Terpin’s bearish short-term call lands at a sensitive moment for Bitcoin. Recent market action has already shown how crowded derivatives positioning can amplify moves around the $80,000 area. A fresh Bitcoin open-interest surge showed traders rebuilding futures exposure, raising the risk that a failed support hold could trigger sharper liquidation pressure.
His argument also sits beside a more resilient onchain picture. Recent long-term holder data showed that older BTC holders have not yet experienced the kind of unrealized-loss stress seen at prior deep bear-market lows. That means Terpin’s downside target is not currently being confirmed by a broad long-term holder capitulation signal, even if price remains vulnerable.
Institutional demand is the main counterweight. Terpin pointed to Strategy and Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin accumulation model as a source of support, and recent debate around Strategy’s ability to sell BTC while still buying more shows why that market floor is not purely psychological. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasury demand, and structured accumulation vehicles can absorb supply in ways earlier cycles did not have.
That does not remove the downside risk. If BTC loses the $80,000 area and leverage starts unwinding, the first technical damage zone sits around $74,000 to $75,000. A deeper move toward Terpin’s $60,000 to $50,000 range would likely need several forces at once: ETF outflows, weaker macro liquidity, failed dip-buying, and a stronger liquidation wave across futures markets.
The level to watch is still $80,000. A sustained hold keeps Terpin’s short trade under pressure and gives spot demand room to rebuild. A decisive break below that zone would turn his call from a contrarian warning into the market’s main downside scenario, with $74,000 first and the $60,000s becoming the larger risk band.
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