Monero (XMR) fell below its 2021 all-time high support level, according to crypto analyst Sjuul, as of Monday, January 26, signaling a major technical breakdown watched closely by traders.
The rejection from this long-standing support signals weakening bullish momentum and places the asset at a pivotal crossroads.
With the 2021 level now convincingly breached, focus has turned to a dominant ascending trend line that has been in place for an extended period. This level is considered to be the last line of defense for the bulls. As long as XMR remains above this level, the bull market remains technically intact.
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However, a confirmed breakdown below this trend line is likely to result in further pressure on the downside, which would negate the current recovery story, at least in the short to medium term. In this case, the market’s sentiment may turn defensive, with the market preparing for further retracements.
Source: Sjuul X Post
On the flip side, holding above this trend line sustains hopes. This is because if buyers can enter and hold above this price level, XMR could potentially stabilize and then try to break out again.
Holding above this price level sustains hopes of a potential rally to the $800 region in the future, which is ambitious but technically possible.
According to TradingView, as of Monday, January 26, after a strong rally and touching near $700, the price reversed and started a clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows.
Currently, it is trading near $471, which is below the 20-period SMA at $488, acting as resistance. Bollinger Bands have tightened, which indicates that the volatility is coming down, and the lower band of $436 has acted as support.
Source: TradingView
Momentum indicators also support this cautionary view. The RSI (14) is around 39, bouncing back from its near-oversold levels but still below the neutral level of 50. This indicates bearish momentum easing rather than changing direction. The moving average of the RSI is also low, indicating hesitant buying.
The MACD is still below zero with a slightly negative and flat histogram, indicating easing bearish momentum rather than a bullish move.
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