Nasdaq 100 futures surged more than 1.5% on Monday as markets reacted to a rapid shift in Middle East risk, with Iran halting its latest military operations against Israel and President Donald Trump saying both sides were moving toward an immediate ceasefire.
The rally marked a sharp change from earlier risk-off trading, when renewed Iran-Israel strikes pushed oil higher and added pressure to global equities. Tech futures led the rebound as traders moved back into growth stocks, chip names and AI-linked equities after last week’s heavy selloff.
The market reaction was strongest in Nasdaq 100 futures, which rose around 1.4% to 1.8% in premarket trading depending on the update window. S&P 500 futures also gained, while Dow futures moved higher at a slower pace. The gap shows investors were not only reacting to geopolitics. They were also buying back the technology trade after a sharp reset in semiconductors and AI infrastructure names.
Iran’s move to end its latest operations against Israel helped cool immediate fears of a broader regional escalation. Trump also said Israel and Iran were looking toward an immediate ceasefire, with final negotiations continuing until a “Final Deal” is reached.
Oil prices gave back part of their earlier spike as the ceasefire push gained traction. Brent had moved toward the high-$90s during the escalation, before easing as traders priced a lower near-term risk of further disruption.
That matters for equities because a sustained oil shock would pressure inflation expectations, bond yields and consumer-facing sectors. Higher energy prices can also make central-bank policy harder if inflation starts rising again while growth-sensitive assets are already stretched.
The relief rally therefore had two layers. First, investors reduced the immediate war-risk premium. Second, lower oil pressure made it easier for traders to buy back technology and AI names after a sharp liquidation wave across global markets.
The Nasdaq rebound follows a brutal Asia session, where South Korea halted stock trading after the KOSPI plunged more than 8%. That crash was led by Samsung, SK Hynix and other AI-linked stocks, showing how quickly the global AI trade had shifted from leadership to forced selling. Japan’s Nikkei 225 also plunged 4% this morning.
The timing gives the Nasdaq move extra weight. The futures rally is not happening in a calm market. It comes after a deep tech correction, a semiconductor selloff and growing concern that AI-linked valuations had run too far too fast.
Investors had been cutting exposure to crowded AI winners after weakness in U.S. chip names spilled into Asian markets. Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron and memory-linked stocks all became part of the same de-risking trade. That pressure also hit sentiment around South Korea just as Nvidia’s regional push put AI memory, robotics and factory infrastructure back in focus.
The rebound suggests investors are still willing to buy dips when geopolitical risk cools and oil stops rising. Nvidia’s Korea strategy remains a major part of the AI infrastructure story, with Jensen Huang’s meetings and memory-supply talks keeping Samsung and SK Hynix near the center of the trade.
That does not erase the risk. A futures bounce can fade quickly if the ceasefire path breaks down, oil spikes again or investors keep reducing exposure to expensive AI names. The Nasdaq reaction shows relief, not a full reset of the market’s problems.
Crypto traders are also watching the Nasdaq rebound because Bitcoin and high-beta digital assets have been trading closer to the same risk-capital pool as AI stocks and growth equities. When tech sells off hard, crypto liquidity often weakens. When Nasdaq futures recover, Bitcoin and altcoins can get a short-term sentiment boost.
That link has been visible across recent market action, with Bitcoin sliding as risk capital rotated toward AI mega-raises and away from crypto exposure. A calmer Middle East tape can help, but crypto still needs ETF demand, stable leverage and stronger spot buying to turn a relief move into a cleaner recovery.
For now, the market has a clear short-term catalyst. Iran’s halt to operations and Trump’s final-deal push lowered the immediate geopolitical stress level, oil eased from its spike, and Nasdaq 100 futures led the rebound. The next test is whether the ceasefire language holds through the U.S. cash session or turns into another intraday reversal if missiles, oil or diplomatic headlines shift again.
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