The number just landed, and it flipped the script completely. ๐ฎ
Heading into today, the setup was hawkish: the Fed had just held rates with three policymakers pushing for a hike, and markets were leaning toward a September increase. Then the dataย hit.
The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sharp miss against forecasts of roughly 80,000 gains. To make it worse, Juneโs already soft +57,000 was revised all the way down to just +20,000.ย ๐
Hereโs the breakdown:
๐ป Payrolls: -23,000 (vs +80,000 expected)
๐ป June revised: +57,000 โ +20,000
๐ Unemployment rate: 4.1% (down from 4.2%)
๐ Labour force participation: 61.4%, the lowest in over five years
๐๏ธ Losses concentrated in local government education (-50,000) and retail trade (-19,000)
This is exactly the โbeyond the headlineโ story we flagged earlier this week. The lower unemployment rate looks reassuring on the surface, but itโs being driven by people leaving the workforce, not by stronger hiring. Combined with another steep downward revision, the internals paint a weaker picture than the surface number suggests. ๐งฉ
Market reaction has been swiftย โก
๐ต Odds of a September Fed rate hike dropped to under 44%, down from 57% just before the release, reversing weeks of hawkish positioning
๐ฅ Gold jumped, trading above $4,400 an ounce
๐ฒ The dollar came under freshย pressure
With the Fedโs September decision now genuinely in play and political and geopolitical noise still swirling, expect volatility to stay elevated across USD pairs, gold and equities in the sessions ahead.ย ๐ฅ
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๐ก๐๐ฃ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐๐น๐๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ป: ๐๐๐น๐ ๐ฃ๐ฎ๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐น๐น๐ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ผ๐ฐ๐ธ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ |โฆ was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
