October proved exceptionally volatile for the silver market — the price broke past a historical record, climbing above $50. However, after widespread profit-taking, the market reversed downward.
XAG/USD is currently influenced by several factors:
→ prospects for Federal Reserve policy;
→ the easing of trade tensions between the United States and China;
→ the potential government shutdown and related news.
As indicated by the ATR indicator, volatility is declining — suggesting that supply and demand forces may be finding a balance.
The broad upward channel remains intact, though it is worth noting that its median line has shifted from acting as support to serving as resistance.
From a bullish perspective:
→ the lower boundary of the channel acts as strong support;
→ the bullish A-B-C-D structure indicates that demand is recovering.
From a bearish perspective: if the silver price continues to rise, it will face resistance at:
→ the psychological $50 mark;
→ the 21 October drop zone, where selling pressure previously dominated.
Given the above, it is reasonable to assume that:
→ in the near term, the price may consolidate around the QL line;
→ if bearish momentum resumes, the alternative downward channel (shown in red) will gain relevance.
