On 10 March, analysing the EUR/USD chart, we:
→ considered the long-term descending channel, which remains relevant;
→ noted that the sequence of lower lows A–H was broken with the appearance of a higher peak I, with 1.1680 potentially acting as resistance.
At peak I, bulls exhausted their strength: after forming a consolidation zone near the channel’s median, bears regained control and pushed the price to a new yearly low, driven by a bearish fundamental backdrop.
Tomorrow, the Fed is expected to release its interest rate decision, while the ECB will issue comments the day after. These events could significantly shift market sentiment regarding EUR/USD, and current price behaviour suggests that bulls may attempt a comeback.
Note the following:
→ The descending trendline from last week has been breached; the market is holding above the breakout level around 1.14560.
→ The pair is recovering from oversold territory just below the lower boundary of the channel. The psychological level 1.1500 may provide support.
Thus, traders should consider the scenario in which EUR/USD’s strong movement on Monday–Tuesday is confirmed by upcoming central bank news.
