On 3 October, we noted growing optimism in equity markets ahead of the corporate earnings season. That sentiment was validated yesterday as several major banks reported results that exceeded analysts’ expectations, helping the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) rebound from last Friday’s sell-off.
Morgan Stanley (MS) led the rally, with its shares hitting a new all-time high above $166 following a robust quarterly report:
→ Revenue surged to a record $18.2 billion, up 18% year-on-year.
→ Earnings per share (EPS): actual $2.80, vs forecast $2.10.
Price action in MS shares allows for the construction of an upward channel (shown in blue) that has been forming since the summer.
→ Yesterday, a wide bullish gap appeared on the chart.
→ The price advanced into the upper half of the channel, breaking above the $160 psychological level.
From a bullish perspective:
→ The breakout from a bullish flag pattern supports the scenario of a resumed uptrend within the channel.
→ The channel median, reinforced by the $160 support, could serve as a key level going forward.
However, there are several bearish signals to note:
→ Intraday price swings formed a wide up-and-down movement, resembling a bearish engulfing pattern that could develop further in today’s session.
→ The brief and shallow breakout above the previous high suggests a bull trap.
The RSI indicator also shows signs of bearish divergence, implying that:
→ The recent surge in MS shares may have prompted some long holders to lock in profits near record highs.
→ Despite strong fundamentals supporting long-term growth, the stock could be vulnerable to a short-term correction, potentially towards the bullish gap area.
