Over the past 48 hours, XRP lost the important $1.40 support level. Meanwhile, social sentiment around the token moved in the wrong direction, widening the gap between bullish and bearish voices.
Fear and caution are becoming more common among investors, and that shift is happening while the price action remains unstable. Still, one analyst believes this combination could be the start of a turnaround, pointing to how XRP behaved the last time sentiment deteriorated this sharply.
In his latest report, market analyst Sam Daodu notes that XRP has fallen more than 60% over the past nine months, dropping from a July 2025 cycle high of $3.65. The sell-off has triggered rapid selling and weakened what technical analysts often call market structure, leaving the token’s near-term direction unclear.
Beyond these factors, Daodu also links pressure on the token to broader macro conditions. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed toward roughly 1.97% to 1.98%, borrowing costs rose, and that has pressured investors to reduce risk, with XRP among the assets affected.
On top of that, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have reportedly contributed to a “risk-off” rotation, with some traders choosing safer stores of value such as gold or bonds instead of holding XRP.
As a result, analytics provider Santiment, cited in Daodu’s report, says negative conversations have surged, with more users openly questioning whether XRP is truly decentralized, what real-world problem it solves, and who effectively controls the network.
The analyst points out that Santiment data show two prior occasions within the last two years when XRP’s social sentiment fell into similarly bearish territory—and that both times, the altcoin followed with a meaningful rally.
In February 2025, sentiment dropped to a ratio of 0.96 bullish to 1.00 bearish, with XRP trading around $2. From there, the altcoin surged 82%, eventually reaching a high of $3.65 by July. Then, in October 2025, the ratio was 1.01 bullish per 1.00 bearish.
In the current reading, with prices currently at around $1.37 at the time of writing, the ratio stands at 1.02 bullish to 1.00 bearish, which Daodu describes as the third-most bearish social sentiment level in the last two years.
From a pure market-structure standpoint, the chart also remains bearish. Daodu notes that XRP is currently trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages (MAs), indicating that the downtrend has not yet reversed in a technically convincing way.
In other words, the current bounce—if it comes—would likely depend on catalysts rather than sentiment alone. Until something concrete changes, Daodu argues that a major rally is unlikely.
What Could Flip The Script?For XRP to move into a bullish run similar to the one that followed the February 2025 sentiment low, Daodu says several elements would need to align.
First is the CLARITY Act, which would permanently and legally classify XRP as a commodity. If the bill passes, Daodu expects large institutional investors to be more willing to buy the token without worrying as much about regulatory risk.
Second is whale behavior, where on-chain data reportedly point to accumulation rather than distribution. Daodu says large wallets are adding more than 11 million XRP every day, and that the Whale Flow 30DMA is at a 10-month high.
Finally, the analyst turns to Bitcoin (BTC) because he argues XRP rarely makes a major upside move while BTC is falling. Bitcoin often sets the tone for the broader crypto market, and the altcoin tends to move in its shadow.
Daodu’s overall takeaway is that the current environment may look like a trap to some, but it could also be an opportunity—if the right signals keep appearing.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
