Speaking on the latest episode of the Tapping Into Crypto Podcast, Swyftx Lead Market Analyst, Pav Hundal, has labelled a prediction from asset management firm Bitwise that Bitcoin could be valued at around US$1.3 million (AU$2 million) by 2035 as “conservative”.
“I think that’s pretty conservative,” Hundal said of Bitwise’s 10-year outlook, adding “even Strategy — Michael Saylor’s company — their conservative benchmark was a 35% compounded annual growth rate, so it’s not crazy.”
Bitwise’s US$1.3 million figure came from a report the firm published last month that looked at Bitcoin’s long-term price potential.
“We forecast bitcoin will be the best-performing institutional asset over the next decade, with its price rising to $1.3 million by 2035 (a 10-year forward compound annual growth rate of 28.3%),” the report’s authors wrote.
Tapping Into Crypto co-host Ted Coaldrake also lent support to Hundal’s characterisation of the prediction as conservative, highlighting that a 28% annual compounded growth rate for Bitcoin is way down on its historical performance.
“If you look at the 10 year annual growth rate, it’s 82.5%,” Coaldrake said. “From 10 years to 5 years it [Bitcoin’s annual growth rate] dropped from 82% to 63%. The drop that we’re gonna see from the previous 5 years to the next 10 years is well over half.”
Related: Bitwise Unveils 10-Year Bitcoin Outlook: High Returns, High Volatility Ahead
The Bitwise report also argued that the four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead. It claims the influx of institutional capital will see Bitcoin’s volatility drop and other factors, such as politics, regulation and macro-economic conditions, will become more important drivers of the market than Bitcoin halvings.
“We believe that bitcoin’s historic ‘four-year cycle’ is no longer relevant, although we caution that bitcoin is still subject to significant drawdowns,” the report notes.
Related: Aussie Analyst Reveals What Traders Should Do This Bitcoin Cycle
Hundal was skeptical of this claim though, saying he would need to see more evidence before agreeing the four-year cycle has become irrelevant.
“The four-year cycle thing’s always been a bit of a weird one — I’m still in that camp of ‘I’d like to see it before I have to believe it,” Hundal said.
I’d still be looking for Bitcoin to top-out, find a place where it plateaus, be a bit more cautious and then just watch those recoveries from there to see if altcoins take off again.
Pav Hundal, Swyftx Lead Market Analyst Asked by Coaldrake if he still expects a bullish Q4, which would be in keeping with the traditional four-year crypto cycle, Hundal replied “Q4 — yeah I’m still looking at that as a topping point.”
The post Prediction That Bitcoin Could Hit A$2 Million By 2035 “Pretty Conservative”, Says Swyftx Analyst appeared first on Crypto News Australia.
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