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Fed Rate Cut Odds Surge: What It Means for Crypto Prices and Market Volatility

Powell’s Speech Could Drive Crypto Prices

All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will deliver a critical speech next Tuesday. His comments could directly impact crypto prices, as markets position around expectations of looser monetary policy.

In past cycles, dovish Fed signals have often triggered upward momentum in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins — but sharp reversals can follow if Powell strikes a cautious tone.

Fed Rate Cut Odds at 91.9%: Bullish for Crypto Prices?

According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a rate cut in October 2025 has surged to 91.9%. This shift increases expectations of liquidity inflows that historically supported higher crypto prices.

A cut from 400–425 bps down to 375–400 bps could lower borrowing costs, driving fresh capital into risk assets like $Bitcoin and $Ethereum. However, the anticipation of easier policy also brings higher volatility, as traders adjust their crypto price targets in real-time.

Key Economic Data That Could Shake Crypto Prices

Beyond Powell’s speech, next week’s packed calendar will heavily influence crypto markets:

• Tuesday: Powell Speech, Services & Manufacturing PMI → potential immediate impact on Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.
• Thursday: US GDP (Q2), Jobless Claims → macro indicators that could shift institutional appetite for crypto.
• Friday: Core PCE Price Index → the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, likely to cause major swings in crypto prices if results deviate from expectations.

Why Crypto Prices Could Be Extra Volatile

Crypto prices are more sensitive to liquidity shifts than traditional assets. The combination of Powell’s speech, a likely rate cut, and fresh macro data means Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins could see outsized moves:

• $BTC and $ETH prices may rally on dovish Fed signals but face corrections if data points to sticky inflation.
• Altcoin prices could experience even greater volatility, with traders rotating in and out quickly based on Fed guidance.
• Stablecoin flows may surge as investors hedge during periods of sharp swings.

Total crypto market cap in USD - TradingView

Crypto Price Outlook Into October

With rate cut odds near 92%, the stage is set for heightened volatility across global markets — and crypto prices will likely move at an even faster pace.

If Powell confirms dovish expectations, Bitcoin and Ethereum could push toward new local highs. If not, a pullback across major crypto prices is almost inevitable.

In short: crypto traders should brace for turbulence.