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Quantum Computing’s Threat on Bitcoin is Inevitable: What To Expect and How To Prepare

Quantum computers are capable of breaking the mathematical difficulty underlying cryptography, making this one of the biggest threats facing blockchain networks.

Fortunately, the impact of quantum computing is still years away. However, industry experts believe that Bitcoin (BTC) is particularly vulnerable, and therefore think that early preparation is key for maintaining the future of the BTC network.

How Quantum Computing Threatens Bitcoin

Nicolás Vescovo, researcher at RootstockLabs and core contributor to Bitcoin Layer-2 network Rootstock, told Cryptonews that the main quantum threat to Bitcoin comes from Shor’s algorithm.

According to Vescovo, this algorithm allows a quantum computer to solve problems that are classically hard – specifically, integer factorization and the discrete logarithm problem.

“These are the mathematical foundations of many digital signature schemes, including those used in cryptocurrencies,” Vescovo said.

He elaborated that Bitcoin uses “ECDSA over secp256k1,” which is a signature scheme based on the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem.

“Rootstock also uses ECDSA for user accounts, contracts, and bridge signers,” Vescovo said. “Once a quantum computer is powerful enough to run Shor’s algorithm at scale, it could derive the private key of any address whose public key is visible onchain. This would allow an attacker to forge valid transactions and steal funds.”

Although frightening, Vescovo added that a quantum computer would need several thousand logical qubits – the fundamental unit of quantum information – to break 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography like ECDSA.

Current Quantum Threat and How To Prepare

While quantum computers remain incapable of this currently, Vescovo pointed out that estimates suggest this could become feasible within 10 to 20 years. This has become widely known, and has even been dubbed Q-Day (or Quantum Day) to represent the “Quantum Apocalypse.”

With this in mind, Vescovo believes that early preparation is critical.

“To prepare, the ecosystem should begin migrating to post-quantum signature schemes,” he said.

These are algorithms that are secure even against quantum adversaries. In order to enable this, Vescovo noted that new schemes should be selected, while wallets and node software should be adapted.

David Carvalho, CEO and founder of Naoris Protocol – a production quantum-resistant blockchain and cybersecurity mesh architecture – told Cryptonews that the Web3 community must also begin to accelerate research and adoption of post-quantum cryptographic standards.

Fortunately, there has been much attention on this topic lately. For instance, David Johnston – a code maintainer at Morpheus – told Cryptonews that the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) released their recommendations on post quantum cryptography. Johnston added that messaging apps like Signal have already adopted these standards as of last year.

Quantum-Resilient Infrastructure

In addition to standards and research, a number of blockchain protocols have started taking steps to secure infrastructure against quantum computers.

For example, Vescovo explained that Rootstock is heavily focused on evaluating post-quantum signature schemes that could eventually replace ECDSA.

“We’re exploring standardized schemes like Dilithium for user accounts and SPHINCS+ for roles requiring long-term security, such as bridge signers,” he said.

The work being done by Rootstock is still in its exposition stage, but remains a critical goal.

Carvalho also noted that Naoris Protocol was created to solve the threat of quantum computing. Carvalho explained that Naoris acts as a “decentralized cybersecurity mesh” on a post-quantum blockchain, reinforced by distributed artificial intelligence (AI).

“Instead of a single point of failure, every node validates the trustworthiness of every other, creating continuous, decentralized zero-trust,” he said. “Technically, we integrate quantum-resistant cryptography into the protocol, ensuring our signatures and consensus mechanisms remain secure even in a post-quantum world.”

Additional Theories: The Rise of Satoshi?

While the quantum threat continues to loom, additional theories have begun circulating.

For instance, Joseph Chalom – co-CEO of SharpLink Gaming – argues that the rise of quantum computing may even push Satoshi Nakamoto, the network’s anonymous creator, to reappear.

Chalom told Cryptonews that this comment was “off the cuff,” but that this existential threat may be the moment that finally ends Satoshi’s silence.

While this is an interesting theory, Johnston noted that it then becomes an even more intriguing case given that Satoshi may have passed away. “If this is true, then he can’t take any of these actions to protect his Bitcoin,” he commented.

Johnston therefore noted that it will be a race to see whoever has enough quantum compute power first to claim Satoshi’s Bitcoin stash.

“This could be the case, unless the Bitcoin protocol takes the extraordinary step of updating the software to make Satoshi‘s coins unspendable. But this would obviously damage the reputation of the protocol because then governments may pressure Bitcoin software developers to freeze the funds of other people they don’t like,” Johnston remarked.

Adding to this, Carvalho mentioned that the vast Bitcoin wallets attributed to Satoshi are among the largest potential quantum targets. Thus if quantum attacks become feasible, those addresses would be at immediate risk.

“Whether Satoshi reappears depends on whether they are still around and willing to intervene,” he said. “Personally, I think the greater point is that the survival of Bitcoin cannot depend on the reappearance of a single individual. The community and industry must evolve to make the protocol resilient regardless of who is watching over it.”

Not Only a Threat To Bitcoin

While Bitcoin remains particularly vulnerable to quantum computing, it’s important to point out that this threat is much larger.

Peter Nordholt, research engineer at blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, told Cryptonews that quantum computing will impact all cryptocurrencies. Indeed, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently declared that quantum is one of the biggest threats to blockchains.

“And even further, lots of more traditional digital security rests on these cryptographic primitives (think online banking, web-shopping, secure communication etc.),” Nordholt added.

In the meantime though, Nordholt believes that major breakthroughs would be needed in order for quantum computing to be considered a serious threat.

“As far as I know, even the experts disagree on how big of a threat this is. Some say quantum computing could be a risk within the decade, while others doubt that the obstacles to quantum computing will ever be overcome,” he remarked.

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