Robinhood’s stock performance has been challenging. Shares have plummeted 53% from their peak of $153.86 reached within the past year and remain underwater by 23% in 2026. Declining transaction volumes, weakening cryptocurrency income, and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions have weighed on sentiment.
Yet Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani remains firmly optimistic.
The analyst maintained his Outperform recommendation and $130 valuation ahead of the company’s first-quarter 2026 financial release scheduled for April 28. With shares currently trading near $71.67, this price objective represents approximately 50% appreciation potential.
Chhugani’s central thesis is straightforward: disappointing Q1 results are already embedded in the share price, allowing investors to shift their attention toward future opportunities.
Chhugani contends that Bitcoin has already established a price floor and anticipates substantial cryptocurrency momentum beginning in the second quarter.
His projections call for Robinhood’s cryptocurrency-related revenues to climb 23% annually to $1.1 billion in 2026. This would represent approximately 15% of overall revenue expansion. A broader digital asset price recovery during the latter half of the year should enhance retail participation and lift transaction rates.
Bitstamp, which Robinhood purchased for $200 million last June, receives particular emphasis. Chhugani characterizes the acquisition as a “key differentiator,” highlighting its rapid growth in institutional trading that now generates roughly 60% of aggregate crypto transaction volume.
Bernstein’s cryptocurrency revenue projection for 2026 stands 31% above consensus Wall Street forecasts. Looking ahead to 2027, their estimates exceed consensus by 18% on revenues and 25% on earnings per share.
Chhugani identifies prediction markets as the most significant incremental growth opportunity for Robinhood throughout 2026.
Segment revenues are anticipated to surge from approximately $150 million in 2025 to roughly $586 million in 2026 — representing extraordinary 286% annual expansion. This business line would constitute about 17% of transaction-derived revenues and drive around 30% of total revenue growth.
The analyst also highlights upcoming catalysts: the United States will host the Football World Cup during summer 2026, while midterm congressional elections later that year should energize political event wagering.
From a market share perspective, Robinhood currently captures just 4% of the total brokerage revenue opportunity. Its retail trading revenue market share expanded from 11% in 2024 to 14% in 2025, propelled by diversification into cryptocurrency and prediction markets.
Bernstein’s 2026 revenue forecast sits 9% above consensus, with earnings per share estimates 16% higher. For 2027, revenue projections exceed consensus by 18% and EPS by 25%.
Not all Wall Street analysts share this enthusiasm. Truist reduced its price objective to $100 from $120, expressing concerns about weakening transaction revenues. Mizuho lowered its target to $105 from $110, highlighting softer net interest income trends. Citizens decreased its target to $155 from $180 after cutting Q1 2026 EBITDA projections to $573.1 million, beneath consensus expectations.
Among 17 analysts providing coverage, 14 assign Buy ratings while 3 recommend Hold, yielding a Strong Buy consensus. The average analyst price target stands at $104.56, implying approximately 20% upside from present levels.
First-quarter earnings are scheduled for release on April 28.
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