Recent data from Coinbase shows sustained selling pressure over the past month, pointing to distribution by U.S.-based investors. Analysts note that this typically reflects activity from ETFs, institutional desks, and large corporate players rather than short-term traders.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which tracks price differences between U.S. and offshore markets, has remained mostly negative, indicating weaker domestic demand.
The index briefly flipped positive only once, during a short-lived push above the $94,000 level. Since then, it has quickly slipped back into negative territory, suggesting that U.S. buyers are either stepping aside or actively reducing exposure. Historically, extended periods of negative premium have coincided with consolidation phases or corrective price action rather than strong upside trends.
The lack of consistent U.S. spot buying is helping explain why Bitcoin has struggled to build momentum despite relatively stable conditions in derivatives markets. Without steady inflows from U.S.-based institutions, upside moves tend to fade quickly, reinforcing the current sideways structure and limiting follow-through on rallies.
While U.S. demand has weakened, broader macro indicators are sending a different message. Global liquidity has been largely flat in recent weeks, matching Bitcoin’s choppy price behavior. However, expectations are building that liquidity conditions could improve as 2026 unfolds, driven by more accommodative central bank policies worldwide.
$BTC Global liquidity is stalling for the past 2 weeks or so.
Meanwhile, BTC has also just chopped sideways. I do expect global liquidity to rise throughout 2026 as central banks are getting more stimulative around the world.
Usually, BTC would join in on a rise in global… pic.twitter.com/hVzIIuvu4o
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) January 10, 2026
Historically, Bitcoin has tended to follow global liquidity trends with a delay. When liquidity expands, risk assets often benefit first, with Bitcoin catching up later. This gap between future liquidity expectations and current price action suggests the market may be in a waiting phase rather than entering a full downturn.
For now, Bitcoin appears caught between two opposing forces: weak U.S. spot demand capping short-term upside and improving macro liquidity expectations limiting downside risk. A decisive move may depend on which side reasserts itself first.
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