Research from K33 shows that one in four publicly listed “Bitcoin treasury” firms have slipped below net asset value, making it harder for them to issue stock and continue buying. Analyst Vetle Lunde warned that when companies fall into this position, fresh equity raises dilute existing shareholders without delivering equal value in Bitcoin.
Some of the steepest declines are dramatic. NAKA, the vehicle formed by KindlyMD and Nakamoto Holdings, has collapsed by more than 95% from its highs, with its premium to net assets evaporating almost entirely. Other names – including Tether-backed Twenty One, Semler Scientific, and The Smarter Web Company – have also tipped below parity, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data.
The overall trend is clear: smaller firms are falling underwater, while larger players still trade above their reserves, but at thinner margins than before. MicroStrategy, long viewed as the poster child of the strategy, has seen its own premium shrink to levels not seen since early 2024. That has slowed its once-regular Bitcoin purchases, weakening one of the most important sources of spot demand over the past year.
Signs of fatigue are already showing in flows. Corporate buyers have added fewer coins in September than at any point since spring, averaging just over 1,400 BTC a day. K33 noted this is part of a broader correction, arguing that pure-play treasury firms shouldn’t command heavy premiums given the costs they carry, from advisory fees to insider incentives.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s derivatives market has offered a different picture. CME futures – a barometer for institutional activity – have flipped back to trading at modest premiums compared with offshore perpetual contracts. Historically, discounts at CME have lined up with overheated peaks, while frothy perps have signaled speculative excess. The current balance suggests a healthier backdrop.
Still, leverage risks remain. Funding rates have stayed elevated above yearly averages, and open interest in perpetual futures is higher than before Bitcoin’s last surge past $115,000. Analysts caution this leaves room for a sharp squeeze if overly bullish positioning starts to unravel.
With more than 1 million BTC now sitting in corporate treasuries, the tide may be shifting toward ETFs and retail investors to provide the next leg of demand – signaling that the era of corporate balance sheets driving the market may be nearing its end.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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