September is a month that statistically has the worst reputation for the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). However, in 2025 things may be different, as today the index hit a record high, rising above 6,520 points.
Bullish sentiment is being driven by:
→ expectations of an interest rate cut in September, which is believed will give the US economy a positive boost (and increase corporate profits);
→ yesterday’s release of the ISM Services PMI (actual = 52.0, forecast = 50.9), which pointed to industrial growth;
→ strong corporate results – for example, Broadcom (AVGO) published a solid report yesterday.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
Analysing the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) on 28 August, we:
→ identified a support zone below 6,370;
→ noted several bearish signals and suggested that 6,500 could act as psychological resistance (with a potential false bullish breakout).
Indeed, since then (as shown by the blue arrows):
→ the price made a false breakout above 6,500;
→ then dropped to 6,370 to test the support zone;
→ after which it turned upwards again, forming a broad bullish engulfing pattern.
New data allows us to refine the position of the short-term channel (marked in blue), with the following perspectives:
→ Bearish view: the price is close to the upper boundary of the channel, which already showed resistance this morning (highlighted by the red arrow) – the candlestick has a long upper shadow.
→ Bullish view: yesterday’s rally demonstrated signs of imbalance in favour of buyers (as detailed in the description of the Fair Value Gap pattern), and the breakout above 6,500 looks genuine (since the price is consolidating above it).
Both viewpoints seem to be well-reasoned, but the market is unlikely to remain in balance, as today (15:30 GMT+3) the release of US labour market data is scheduled – arguably the key event of the week in the economic calendar.
Depending on the figures, the S&P 500 might:
→ attempt to break through the upper boundary;
→ or retreat towards the median of the blue channel.
Be prepared for volatility spikes.
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