Since 2011, September has been the only month where bitcoin consistently posts losses, averaging –4.6%. That statistic alone wouldn’t matter much, but with prices sitting close to all-time highs, the seasonal weakness is magnified by nervousness about incoming U.S. economic data.
The reinstated trade tariffs from August remain unresolved, with enforcement only delayed until mid-October despite a federal appeals court ruling. Analysts expect their impact to show up in inflation releases later this month — data that could become the trigger for traders to unwind positions.
Vetle Lunde of K33 Research has already pared down his personal bitcoin exposure, warning that a sudden repricing like the one seen earlier this year cannot be ruled out. His concern: once macro fears dominate, bitcoin tends to behave like any other risk-on asset, and sell-offs can accelerate quickly.
At the same time, leverage is building. Open interest in perpetual futures has climbed to its highest point this year, while funding rates have swung back and forth without clear direction. This combination leaves bitcoin open to sharp squeezes. If sentiment turns negative, support levels around $101,000 or even $94,000 could come into play.
Investor flows add another layer of caution. Spot bitcoin ETFs shed more than 15,000 BTC in August, their second-worst month since launching. By contrast, gold has been drawing record demand, hitting new highs as central banks shift reserves away from Treasurys. The split underscores that while bitcoin is often branded “digital gold,” investors still treat it very differently in times of macro stress.
None of this undermines bitcoin’s long-term case, Lunde argues. Prospects of Fed rate cuts, expansive fiscal policies, and retirement-plan integration all work in bitcoin’s favor. His strategy is to wait until the tariff impact is clearer before redeploying capital — reflecting a view that the asset’s resilience ultimately wins out but patience is required in the near term.
Bitcoin trades just above $111,000, more than 10% below its August record. With CME futures participation thinning and leveraged ETF exposure shrinking, volatility could spike as September unfolds. For now, the focus is less on new narratives and more on how traditional economic forces dictate crypto’s next move.
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