Speaking in his latest market outlook, Cowen pointed to recurring post-halving patterns that have historically led to explosive peaks.
In previous cycles, Bitcoin has often rallied through late August, cooled off in September, and then surged toward a cycle high before year’s end.
Looking back, Cowen noted that in the last three market cycles, the asset’s late-summer performance was followed by a brief pullback to a key technical zone – often referred to as the “bull market support band” – before launching into its final leg upward. If history repeats, Bitcoin could follow a similar trajectory in the coming months.
Based on past cycle durations, Cowen estimates the market could still be 50 to 60 days away from its peak.
He highlighted that the current cycle has already lasted more than 1,000 days, aligning closely with the timelines of the last two post-halving runs, which both ended just over the 1,060-day mark.
While no outcome is guaranteed, Cowen’s analysis suggests that the coming weeks may set the stage for Bitcoin’s last major push before the cycle shifts – potentially making the fourth quarter a critical period for traders and long-term investors alike.
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