Week 9 was all in green on both stocks and crypto markets.
On Monday, stocks recovered from early dive with major indices ending near flat as investors weighed Middle East war risks for the economy. Iranian strikes lifted energy prices, while a surprise jump in the ISM manufacturing prices index fueled worries the Fed could delay rate cuts. Credit‑sensitive sectors lagged. Most tech names fell, with Broadcom, AMD, and Alphabet each down over 1%, but Nvidia gained about 3% and Palantir roughly 7%. Banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America slipped on private‑credit and default concerns. In crypto, Ether rose about 6%, Bitcoin 6%, and Ripple 4%.
On Tuesday, stocks slid with the S&P 500 down about 1%, after earlier losses near 2.5%, while the Dow fell roughly 1% and the Nasdaq about 1%. All 11 S&P sectors finished lower, led by materials, industrials, and health care, as traders worried that higher energy prices from escalating US–Israel tensions with Iran could slow growth and revive inflation. Losses eased after President Donald Trump pledged to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, calming supply fears. Investors also looked ahead to earnings from Broadcom, Okta, and Abercrombie & Fitch. In crypto, Ether fell about 2%, Ripple 2%, and Bitcoin 1%.
On Wednesday, Stocks climbed,, with the S&P 500 up around 1% and the Nasdaq over 1%, as investors looked past Middle East tensions. Falling oil prices, strong data, and Bessent’s move to secure Gulf oil flows lifted sentiment, while tech and financial stocks gained roughly 5%. The dollar held near 99 after a brief drop on reports — later denied — of Iran peace talks during the sixth day of conflict. Services activity reached a 3‑year high. Bitcoin stayed above $72K rising about 12% this week as gold slipped less than 2%. US Bitcoin ETFs drew roughly $700 million in new inflows.
On Thursday, stocks fell again as the Iran war and surging oil prices rattled sentiment. The Dow dropped about 2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each slipped around 1%. Most S&P sectors declined, with consumer staples, materials, and industrials hit hardest; Caterpillar and GE Aerospace each lost about 4% on worries over supply chains and margins. Oil jumped roughly 8% and is on track for its biggest weekly gain since 2022, though it eased after the Trump administration floated options to counter the spike. Traders now await today’s February jobs report for fresh labor market signals. In crypto, Ether fell about 2%, Bitcoin 2%, and Ripple 2%.
On Friday, markets fell as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow each dropped about 1%, pressured by weak jobs data and renewed Middle East tensions. Payrolls declined roughly 90,000, lifting unemployment to 4%, while oil jumped on Iran concerns. BlackRock sank over 7% after limiting withdrawals from a credit fund, and crypto followed lower — Bitcoin, Ether, and Ripple each slid around 4%.
On Week 11, geopolitics will keep steering global markets after the Middle East war pushed energy prices higher and worsened inflation prospects. Upcoming IEA and OPEC reports will clarify views on Persian Gulf supply disruptions. In the US, attention centers on February CPI and January PCE. Inflation data will also be key in China, India, Brazil, and Mexico, while Japan’s focus is household spending. The Eurozone will release major industrial production figures, and the UK will publish monthly GDP and industrial output. Australia and Switzerland will report leading indicators.
Comment: Open Source Defense.
Many in our decentralized community are discussing open-source defense, which is a remarkable and decisive step toward building truly independent, decentralized city-states.
Naturally, this concept will face fierce resistance from existing powers, especially as decentralized defense technologies become more advanced and capable. We’ve already seen the controversy around 3D-printed firearms — imagine the implications once individuals or communities begin experimenting with open-source defensive systems.
Despite the inevitable opposition from literally every government worldwide, decentralized defense represents the future for those who genuinely seek to preserve individual freedom. Recent geopolitical trends show governments — regardless of their “brand” (authoritarian, democratic, or progressive) — increasingly disregarding fundamental human rights. Many now even claim that such rights are obsolete and that a law-of-the-jungle approach should define society.
This alarming shift drives younger generations to explore alternative governance models rooted in openness, autonomy, and shared technological empowerment.
On Monday, stocks climbed as the Dow rose less than 1% to a new high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained about 1%, led by large-cap tech and AI shares. Nvidia, Broadcom, and Oracle all advanced on renewed AI optimism ahead of key US jobs and inflation data. In currency markets, the offshore yuan strengthened to about 6.9 per dollar — its highest in nearly three years — after Chinese regulators urged banks to trim exposure to US Treasuries, signaling a gradual shift toward stronger domestic assets. In Australia, private house approvals grew less than 1%, marking steady but cooling housing demand. In crypto, Ether jumped 1%, Ripple rose 1%, and Bitcoin edged up less than 1%.
On Tuesday, Markets were mixed as the Dow hit a new high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped, with weak December retail sales (flat vs roughly 0.4% expected) weighing on sentiment and pressuring retail and financial stocks. AI‑related capital spending and new AI advisory tools unsettled some financial names, though tech traded unevenly and Spotify jumped about 15% on strong results. Gold climbed above about $5,100 per ounce, near a two‑week high, as softer US data boosted expectations for roughly three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with central bank buying and geopolitical tensions adding support. In crypto, major tokens dropped, with Ether, Binance Coin, Ripple, and Bitcoin all down around 2–4%.
On Wednesday, stocks rose on a volatile, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up around 0.3% and the Dow setting a record above 50,200. Strong non-farm payrolls, up about 130,000, and a lower unemployment rate highlighted a solid labor market and undercut expectations of imminent Fed easing. AI infrastructure names like Micron, Texas Instruments, and Lam Research climbed over 5%, while software firms such as Salesforce, ServiceNow, Intuit, Oracle, and Palantir slid, reflecting fears of AI-driven disruption. T‑Mobile fell roughly 5% on weak user growth and Humana dipped about 1%. The US ran a January budget deficit near $95 billion, smaller than last year. Crypto lagged, with Ether down about 3%, Bitcoin 2%, and Ripple 2%.
On Thursday, stocks fell as tech weakness erased early gains — the S&P 500 slipped 2%, the Dow 1%, and the Nasdaq 100 nearly 2%. AI-linked sectors faced renewed doubts about the profitability of massive compute spending and automation risks. Apple sank 5% in its worst drop since spring, while Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, and Palantir fell around 2%–5%. Cisco plunged over 12% on weak guidance, though defensives like Walmart (+4%) and McDonald’s (+3%) gained after earnings, and Micron rose on HBM4 chip progress. A strong jobs report kept rate-cut hopes low ahead of Friday’s CPI data. Fed Governor Stephen Miran cautioned that policy may be overly tight and advocated rate cuts to sustain growth. Bitcoin dipped less than 1%, tracking modest crypto market moves.
On Friday, stocks were flat with the S&P 500 and Dow barely moving and the Nasdaq up about 0.2%, leaving major indexes roughly 2% lower for the week as softer January inflation failed to boost risk appetite amid AI volatility. Inflation cooled as expected, keeping markets positioned for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Big tech and chip names like Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, and Broadcom fell around 1–2%, while software firms Salesforce and Oracle gained more than 2%, and Applied Materials and Arista Networks jumped roughly 8% and 5% after strong earnings. In crypto, Ether rose about 5%, Bitcoin 4%, and Ripple roughly 3%, leading digital‑asset gains.
On Week 8, mid‑February data will shape views on the global economy amid trade, monetary, and fiscal uncertainty. The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its latest pause, while the US reports fourth‑quarter GDP plus new income and spending figures. Canada updates inflation, and European PMIs will signal momentum in key economies. With China’s New Year holidays, attention turns to Japan’s fourth‑quarter GDP and inflation, and Australia’s central bank minutes. Earnings from Walmart, Airbus, Newmont, BHP, Palo Alto Networks, Booking, Analog Devices, Warner Bros, and Air Liquide will also guide markets.
