The bank’s model places that “fair” price close to $165,000 – nearly $50,000 above today’s level.
JPMorgan links the bullish outlook to what it calls the “debasement trade,” where investors hedge against weakening fiat currencies with scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin. That theme has gathered momentum throughout 2025, fueled by stubborn inflation, soaring U.S. deficits, and concerns about central bank credibility.
Data shows small investors are at the forefront. Spot Bitcoin and gold ETFs have absorbed heavy inflows over the last quarter, particularly leading into the U.S. election. Institutions are also active but lean more heavily on CME futures contracts rather than ETFs.
Earlier in the year, Bitcoin ETFs captured more attention, but since August, gold funds have started to close the gap. Even so, JPMorgan says both asset classes remain in net accumulation across investor groups.
While gold has rallied sharply, JPMorgan notes that Bitcoin’s relative volatility has cooled, pushing its BTC-to-gold ratio below 2.0. That shift is a key reason the bank believes Bitcoin is undervalued compared with bullion.
If the gap narrows, analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou suggest Bitcoin could solidify its position as digital gold – not only as a speculative play but as a long-term hedge embedded in diversified portfolios.
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