The Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high in July, but has since slowed down. While the Ethereum price had also hit a new all-time high back in August, the broader altcoin market remains weak, leading to speculations that there will not be an altcoin season. With no expectations of an altcoin season happening soon, some have started calling for the cycle top, meaning that a bear market could be on the horizon.
Crypto investor and trader Philakone took to the X (formerly Twitter) platform to update his over 170,000 followers on what part of the cycle the market is in. To do this, Philakone looks back on the past two bull cycles, using the duration of each one from the Bitcoin halving to predict when the current cycle will end.
The Bitcoin halving has always been a way to predict when bull and bear markets could begin, and in the last few cycles, it has been quite accurate, and the trend has remained similar. One of the major things is how many days after the Bitcoin halving was completed it took for the Bitcoin price and the crypto market to reach the top.
As the crypto trader explains, back in 2017, after the 2016 Bitcoin halving, it took a total of 545 days for the bull market to be completed. Similarly, after the 2020 Bitcoin halving, it took another 525 days for the bull market to be over. This shows a tight timeframe for each one.
Currently, the crypto market has already been in 506 days of bull market at the time of the post, with the Bitcoin price already hitting multiple new all-time highs. As a result, the crypto analyst believes that it is time to take profit as there are fewer than 30 days left for this bull market. He also believes that the bull market is now “100% over”.
The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Theory has historically been one of the most accurate measures for when the bull market begins and ends. However, this current cycle has deviated heavily from the 4-year cycle, and this has been attributed to the change in macro headwinds. The advent of things like Spot Bitcoin ETFs had triggered ‘premature’ liquidity into the market, pushing the BTC price to early highs and leaving the altcoin market behind.
However, others such antiprosynthesis.eth believe that the 4-year cycle never existed in the first place. Instead, it was just the macro liquidity aligning every four years. Then the bear markets were being brought on by macro liquidity turning negative, and the turn in the tide the market is seeing now is due to macro liquidity turning positive instead.
