The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) this week issued a no-action letter covering certain reporting and recordkeeping requirements for event-driven contracts. The exemption, which applies narrowly to QCX and its clearing partner QC Clearing, clears a path for Polymarket’s return after its acquisition of derivatives venue QCEX earlier this summer.
For users, the decision means Polymarket can launch U.S. markets without facing enforcement over the technical rules that had previously barred entry. CEO Shayne Coplan called the ruling a milestone, praising regulators for moving quickly and signaling that the launch countdown has begun.
The platform’s comeback also arrives with serious name recognition. Donald Trump Jr. joined the advisory board in August after investing, giving the exchange political cachet ahead of the 2025 election cycle. In June, Elon Musk’s X struck a partnership with Polymarket, further intertwining the platform with mainstream online discourse.
Even before re-entering the U.S., Polymarket’s growth trajectory was steep. July alone saw more than 11,500 prediction markets created, a 44% month-over-month jump. While still below the frenzy of January’s highs, the figures show robust demand for event speculation ranging from politics and sports to financial outcomes.
With official tolerance from regulators and influential allies in its corner, Polymarket is positioned to test whether prediction markets can move beyond crypto-niche status into a legitimate part of U.S. financial culture. The question is no longer if the platform can return — but how quickly it can scale once American traders are allowed back in.
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