The common charts reveal that XAU/USD continues its efforts at stabilizing as it dips nearer to the $4,023 mark, at which point buyers took the price back above $4,300.
Gold still hasn’t moved above several resistance levels and long-term moving averages, however. The prevailing structure, therefore, indicates rebound from support and not confirmation of the larger trend of the uptrend.
Kamile Uray’s chart shows the recent low near $4,023, which sits just above a larger support band that stretches towards $3,896. Price bounced back and is now back over $4,300 from that zone.
Now the rebound is up to the first major resistance level around $4,366. If gold holds above this price through the day, it will enhance the short-term structure and may enable it to reach $4,598.
Further resistance sits near $4,776 and $4,893.
But there is a descending trendline extending from the previous trend peak at 2026 that also intersects this broader area, which would make it difficult for buyers to establish the previous trend.
One notable feature of the chart is that $4,154 is a significant Fibonacci support level. However, if the price of gold does not find a higher bottom at $4,366, then that price may once again be a level to which demand will return.
The intraday chart of Cali XAUUSD shows that the first downside target is $4310 to $4300. That range is near the bottom of the latest consolidation and could be the deciding factor as to the success of this recovery.
According to the analyst chart, the second support area is located in the $4250-$4230 area. If prices fell into that zone, it would wipe out more of the recent recovery and hold prices above the June lows.
If that’s not the case, attention would be drawn to $4154, then $4095, and $4023. This would put the recovery structure under pressure, leaving the lower support level around $3,896 vulnerable.
However, a continuation of the move above $4,366 would take the pressure off the downside and move the focus to $4,598.
AP Research’s six-month chart indicates that gold is below the major moving averages. Price continues to be below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, suggesting that the broader picture has not yet gelled.
Those averages are all within a narrow range of about $4,446 to $4,755, providing a very wide resistance zone above the market. The longer-term chart does turn significantly stronger when gold regains that area.
AP Research also pointed to an options strategy based on a potential climb to $5,400 over the next six months. The deal consists of purchasing a $4,600 call, selling a $5,400 call, and selling a $4,000 put. The trade is an upside scenario, but the chart shows the price is still under major technical resistance.
So far, XAU/USD is in a range between the June bounce support and the resistance at $4,366. If the price holds above $4,300, the immediate recovery will be maintained, and if the price has broken above $4,366, then the next test will be at $4,598.
