The decline comes just as traders enter the final quarter of the year, a period that has historically rewarded crypto investors. This time, however, analysts caution that the much-anticipated “Uptober” rally may not follow its usual script.
Rather than gearing up for a straightforward push higher, research firms say Bitcoin faces unusually high uncertainty. 10x Research has flagged an inflection point where the price could break sharply in either direction, potentially moving $20,000 up or down. Options markets appear to agree, with traders showing little confidence in a bullish breakout. Glassnode has even warned that a slide to $105,500 is possible as billions of dollars in contracts approach expiration.
Selling pressure has been amplified by whales, according to CryptoQuant, which notes that large holders offloaded roughly 147,000 BTC in just a month. The exodus is among the fastest of the current cycle, coinciding with persistent ETF outflows and the exit of long-term wallets dating back to Bitcoin’s early days.
Even so, not all signals point to collapse. Matrixport identifies $109,899 as a line in the sand for bulls, while on-chain data shows that short-term holders remain crucial to defending the $109,580 level. As long as Bitcoin trades above these markers, many believe the overarching bull market remains intact.
For now, momentum is clearly stalling. Bitcoin hovers around $112,550, slipping 5% in a week, with 24-hour trading volume down another 13%. Interest from traders appears to be fading just as Q4 gets underway, leaving markets on edge. Whether October delivers another trademark surge or a deeper pullback will likely depend on how Bitcoin behaves around its newly established fault lines.
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