The EUR/CHF pair is trading within a clear divergence between the two central banks. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points on 11 June, lifting the deposit rate to 2.40% — its first hike since 2023 — after eurozone inflation climbed to 3.2% in May on the back of the Middle East-driven energy shock. More recent signals suggest easing pressure, though, as falling oil prices following the peace agreement have reduced expectations of a further hike in July.
On the Swiss side, the SNB left rates unchanged at 0.00% on 18 June, while signalling greater readiness to intervene in the currency market to contain excessive franc strength. Despite the ECB's rate advantage, the franc remains structurally firm below parity, underpinned by its so-called safe-haven status and the still-fragile geopolitical backdrop. A renewed bout of risk-off sentiment could see the franc regain ground even against a higher-yielding euro.
After bottoming out in March 2026, EUR/CHF has been building a medium-term bullish structure. Price is now testing a pivotal zone, the former support around 0.9240–0.9260, which has since flipped into resistance.
Bullish scenario
The 100-period EMA has been underpinning price for several sessions, while two ascending trendlines reinforce the recent breakout from the descending channel. A confirmed break above the 0.9240–0.9260 zone could open the way toward the next key level near 0.9350, validating a bullish structural shift for the pair.
Bearish scenario
A rejection from the current zone, with price slipping back inside the descending channel it recently broke out of, could reignite stronger bearish pressure and drag the pair back toward the 0.9100 support area.
With both the fundamental and technical picture converging at this decisive juncture, and the next central bank moves still uncertain, will EUR/CHF finally manage to break through this heavily contested zone?
