The firm noted that while Bitcoin’s technical structure looks solid, on-chain liquidity has not yet reached the levels needed to fuel a decisive breakout.
Liquidity, in this context, reflects how smoothly BTC can be traded without major price swings. When liquidity is thin, sell orders weigh heavily on the market, amplifying declines.
According to Swissblock, capital has already been rotating into Ethereum and other altcoins, which often outperform in the latter stages of a cycle.
Where the next wave of investor inflows is directed could determine whether Bitcoin makes its move first or whether altcoins lead.
Despite short-term volatility, Swissblock’s Bitcoin Risk Index signals that the broader trend remains bullish.
The model, which factors in on-chain valuations and cost-basis metrics, continues to place Bitcoin in a low-risk environment.
As the firm explained, this means that temporary pullbacks should be seen as opportunities. While Bitcoin may punish over-leveraged traders with sudden dips, the underlying risk remains contained, and the environment still favors buying the downside.
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