Shutdown odds are shifting fast — Kalshi traders now expect the U.S. government shutdown to end by Thursday. If that happens before or alongside the CPI release, markets could see a double-catalyst rally as policy paralysis lifts and data resumes.
- Risk assets: Relief rally.
- Bitcoin: Sentiment rebound; potential >$2B ETF inflows.
- Yields: Spike, then fade if CPI ≤ 3.1%.
- S&P 500: +1–2% window as DC risk premium fades.
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