The rebound came right after a buy signal was flagged by analysts, with trading patterns hinting at renewed short-term momentum.
Market data shows ENA climbing 2.2% in the past week, now holding a $4.87 billion market cap. Trading volumes surged following a sharp move from $0.66 to $0.74, aligning with technical indicators that suggested the token was oversold. On the hourly chart, RSI spiked above 70 before cooling, while the MACD flipped bullish for the first time in weeks.
Behind the rally is Ethena’s USDe stablecoin, which has ballooned to $11.6 billion in supply after the GENIUS Act approval. Its yield-bearing model (6–9% APY) and integrations with Aave, Pendle, and Coinbase are fueling rapid adoption. Currently, 55% of Ethena’s assets are looped through Aave, a strategy that amplifies growth but also heightens systemic risk.
Analysts warn that an unwind of Aave’s $6.4 billion Ethena-linked exposure could trigger cascading liquidations, directly pressuring ENA’s price. This concentration risk has become a major talking point among traders monitoring the project’s long-term sustainability.
Ethena’s foundation is conducting a $260 million buyback program, purchasing roughly $5 million worth of ENA daily until September 2025. The move is designed to counter dilution and provide price stability. However, the token faces ongoing unlocks, with 171.8 million ENA ($106M) hitting the market on August 5, pushing 41% of total supply into circulation.
Monthly unlocks, such as July’s 40 million ENA release, continue to weigh on sentiment. The effectiveness of the buyback program largely depends on sustained USDe revenues, which fund the repurchases. Without consistent inflows, sell pressure could outweigh the foundation’s support.
For now, ENA’s rebound has restored optimism among traders who see potential upside if USDe growth continues. However, the balance between buybacks and unlocks, combined with Aave exposure risks, keeps the outlook uncertain.
If bullish momentum holds, analysts suggest ENA could retest resistance near $0.80, while a breakdown below $0.70 may reignite bearish pressure.
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