Alcoa (AA) Stock Drops After Earnings Miss and Guidance Cut

TLDR

• Alcoa reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.12 and EBITDA of $901M, missing Wall Street estimates of $2.55 EPS and $943M EBITDA.
• Full-year alumina production guidance was cut to 9.5M–9.6M metric tons, down from 9.7M–9.9M, due to problems at its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia.
• Revenue rose to $3.97B from $3.02B a year ago, with net earnings jumping to $407M from $164M.
• Aluminum segment EBITDA surged to $1.07B from $97M in Q2 last year, boosted by higher metal prices and restarted smelters.
• AA stock was down around 2.4% pre-market Friday and is off roughly 12% year to date.

Alcoa (AA) stock was trading down 2.4% in pre-market Friday, around $45.84, after the aluminum producer posted Q2 results that fell short of Wall Street expectations and trimmed its full-year alumina production outlook.

Alcoa Corporation, AA

Alcoa reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.12 and EBITDA of $901M on revenue of $3.97B. Analysts had been looking for EPS of $2.55 and EBITDA of $943M, according to FactSet.

On a reported basis, the numbers were actually pretty solid. Net earnings jumped to $407M, or $1.53 per share, compared to $164M, or $0.62 per share, a year ago. Revenue climbed from $3.02B in Q2 2025.

ALCOA $AA Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $3.97B (Est. $3.99B) 🔴
🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.12 (Est. $2.32) 🔴

Lowers FY26 Alumina Outlook:
🔹 Production: 9.5M-9.6M tons; cut by 0.2M-0.3M tons
🔹 Shipments: 11.5M-11.6M tons; cut by 0.3M-0.4M tons

Maintains FY26 Aluminum Outlook:… pic.twitter.com/Rfoh4baRKo

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) July 16, 2026

A year ago, benchmark aluminum prices sat around $2,600 per metric ton. They’re now closer to $3,200 — a tailwind that showed up clearly in Alcoa’s aluminum segment.

Q2 adjusted EBITDA in the aluminum segment surged to $1.07B, up from just $97M in the same quarter last year. That’s a dramatic turnaround, driven by the rally in metal prices and the restart of previously idled smelters.

Aluminum shipments climbed 18% quarter-over-quarter. Alcoa attributed that to inventory repositioned in North America during Q1 and increased production capacity.

Pinjarra Refinery Drags on Alumina

The alumina side of the business told a different story. The alumina segment swung to a $96M loss, compared to a $139M loss in Q2 2025 — still in the red.

Q2 alumina shipments came in flat quarter-over-quarter. Delayed shipments in Australia were partially offset by lower trading activity and reduced output at the Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia.

The Pinjarra refinery has been a problem since March, when instability at the site was made worse by gas supply disruptions tied to Cyclone Narelle. The refinery has since returned to stable operations, but the damage to production volumes is already done.

“While the refinery has since returned to stable operations and is performing well, we do not expect to fully recover the production and shipment volumes that were lost during the second quarter,” CFO Molly Beerman said on the earnings call.

Guidance Cut Adds to Pressure

As a result, Alcoa cut its full-year 2026 alumina production guidance to 9.5M–9.6M metric tons, down from its prior outlook of 9.7M–9.9M tons.

That guidance cut overshadowed the strong aluminum segment performance and contributed to the stock’s negative reaction.

AA had already been under pressure before these results. The stock dropped 3.6% on Thursday and is down about 12% year to date, even as aluminum prices have risen.

Alcoa is also dealing with the overhang from its June 30 announcement that it plans to acquire South32’s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets for $4.1B in cash and stock. The stock has fallen 13% since that deal was announced, reflecting concerns around added debt, equity dilution, and integration risk.

AA was down 12% year to date through Thursday’s close.

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