Amazon is set to report its first-quarter 2026 results after the bell today, and investors have plenty to watch.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect earnings of $1.63 per share, up from $1.59 in Q1 2025. Revenue is forecast at $177.28 billion, compared to $155.7 billion a year ago — roughly 14% growth.
AMZN stock has climbed 30% over the past month, buoyed by AWS momentum, a deal with Meta to power agentic AI on Graviton chips, and a fresh commitment to invest up to $25 billion in Anthropic.
Options traders are pricing in a move of 3.43% in either direction following the report. That’s below Amazon’s average post-earnings move of 5.88% over the past four quarters.
AWS is the number to watch. Cloud revenue is expected to hit $36.6 billion, a 25% jump year-over-year.
Investors want proof that AI spending is translating into real cloud demand. AWS results will be a key data point on that front.
UBS analyst Stephen Ju is more bullish than most. He’s forecasting 38% AWS growth for full-year 2026 — well above the Street’s 26% consensus. His 2027 operating income estimate sits about 39% above consensus as a result.
Ju raised his price target to $304 from $301 ahead of earnings, keeping his Buy rating in place. He doesn’t think a premium asset like Amazon should trade at a discount to the broader market.
Evercore’s Mark Mahaney also holds a Buy with a $285 target. He expects Amazon to beat on Q1 revenue and EPS, but sees Q2 operating income guidance coming in at or below expectations.
Amazon announced in February it plans to spend $200 billion on AI in 2026. The stock fell after that announcement, and investors will be watching for any update to that figure.
Capital expenditure for Q1 — tracked via property and equipment purchases — is estimated at $43.6 billion, up sharply from $25 billion in the same period last year.
On Tuesday, Amazon and OpenAI announced an expansion of their partnership, days after Microsoft and OpenAI said their exclusive arrangement had ended.
Iran conflict-related oil price increases are another variable. Higher oil prices push up shipping costs, which could squeeze operating margins in the retail segment.
UBS analyst Ju noted on April 23 that while e-commerce estimates remain unchanged, higher shipping costs are a consideration.
Consumer spending data remains healthy for now, providing some cushion for the retail business.
Wall Street’s overall consensus is a Strong Buy, based on 40 Buy ratings and two Holds. The average price target is $289.05, implying around 11.3% upside from current levels.
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