ASML has had a strong run in 2026. The Dutch chip-equipment maker is up more than 40% year-to-date, trading around $1,500 — close to its 52-week high of $1,547.22. All eyes are now on Wednesday’s Q1 earnings report.
Analysts polled by LSEG expect Q1 revenue of around €8.5 billion. ASML itself guided between €8.2 billion and €8.9 billion for the quarter, up from €7.7 billion a year ago. Several analysts expect the company to land near the top end of that range.
“It’s no secret that the quarter will be strong,” said Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero. He pointed to recent orders — SK Hynix placing roughly $8 billion in ASML tool purchases and Samsung committing $4–5 billion — as early positive indicators.
For the full year, ASML guided €34–39 billion in revenue, against €32.7 billion in 2024. Consensus sits at €37.6 billion, and some analysts see room for ASML to lift its guidance to the upper half of that range when it reports Wednesday.
Capital Group equity investment director Richard Carlyle, whose funds hold just over 3% of ASML, summed up the investment thesis simply: “We’re investing in the picks and shovels of the AI revolution.” His team is watching EUV shipment volumes closely.
Timber Creek Capital Management also opened a new $5.17 million position in Q4, buying 4,833 units. They weren’t alone — Capital International, Arrowstreet, the Regents of UC, WCM, and AllianceBernstein all increased or initiated stakes in recent quarters. Institutional ownership now stands at around 26%.
ASML also announced a chunky dividend increase. The quarterly payout jumps from $1.88 to $3.1771 per unit — an annualized $12.71 — with an ex-dividend date of April 27 and payment on May 5. That puts the yield at roughly 0.8% at current prices.
Analyst sentiment skews positive. Sanford C. Bernstein set a price target of $1,971, with a buy rating. The consensus across 31 analysts is “Moderate Buy” with an average target of $1,482.50. Two have it at Strong Buy, 21 at Buy, six at Hold, and two at Sell.
China remains a variable. The country made up around one-third of ASML’s revenue in 2025 but is forecast to drop to about 20% this year due to existing export restrictions.
The bigger open question is whether new curbs proposed by the U.S. Congress could go further. Analysts say if applied in their strictest form, those rules could eliminate less than half of ASML’s remaining China sales.
ASML stopped reporting new bookings after last quarter, saying the data was causing excessive stock volatility on earnings days. That decision means Wednesday’s report will put extra weight on the company’s own forward guidance.
ASML’s longer-term growth targets of 6–13% annual sales through 2030 were built on the assumption that the global chip market would hit $1 trillion only by the end of that period. Most analysts now expect the industry to pass that milestone this year.
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