ASML stock jumped 4% to $1,803.23 in morning trading on Tuesday, outperforming a flat broader market, as a wave of analyst upgrades and Intel’s expanded capital raise pushed investors toward chipmaking equipment names.
The catalyst started before the open. Bernstein reiterated its Buy rating on ASML and published sweeping upgrades to its global wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending forecasts. The firm now projects around $148 billion in WFE spending for 2026, climbing to $204 billion in 2027 and $259 billion in 2028.
That would represent roughly 75% growth over two years. For a company that holds a near-monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, those numbers matter a lot.
ASML closed U.S. trading up 3.8% at $1,799.38.
Analyst conviction has been building for a while. Just a day earlier, analyst Scemama reiterated a Buy with an unchanged €2,452 price target, pointing to ASML’s lithography leadership and its throughput roadmap. Goldman Sachs had already added the stock to its European Conviction List earlier this month.
That kind of stacking endorsement from multiple major institutions tends to get attention.
The other big piece of the puzzle was Intel. Late Monday, Intel said it was increasing its stock offering to $20 billion, up from the original $15 billion plan. It is issuing 210.5 million shares at $95 each.
Intel stock dipped 4.1% when the offering was first announced Monday, then closed up 0.2% at $97.71 on Tuesday. The stock is up 165% year-to-date and up 348% over the past 12 months, so Intel is clearly taking advantage of its elevated price.
Markets read the move as a signal that Intel is gearing up for major capital expenditure. The company already raised its 2026 capex estimate to more than $20 billion on its recent earnings call, up from around $18 billion, citing rising product demand.
KeyBanc analyst Matt Bryson said the raise supports Intel funding expansion for current CPU requirements as well as future custom ASIC, foundry, and packaging demand. He noted the dilution is a negative for existing investors, but the demand signal is positive for Intel, peers, and capital equipment suppliers.
ASML is the clearest beneficiary given its role as the sole supplier of EUV machines. Its order book for those machines now stretches into 2028. The company has also flagged plans to expand Low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity by 30% in 2027.
Other equipment names moved with it. Lam Research gained 1.64%, KLA Corp rose 4.01%, and Applied Materials added 0.67% on Tuesday.
Intel’s free cash flow is expected to be modestly negative this year, and was a cumulative negative $44 billion between 2022 and 2025, according to FactSet.
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