Prediction markets are on track to become a trillion-dollar industry by the end of the decade, according to a new report from investment firm Bernstein.
PREDICTION MARKETS COULD HIT $1T BY 2030
Bernstein expects prediction market volumes to grow from $51B in 2025 to $1T by 2030, with revenues topping $10B.
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Analysts at Bernstein estimate total prediction market volumes will hit $240 billion in 2026 alone — a 370% jump from 2025. At a compound annual growth rate of around 80%, the firm sees the market reaching $1 trillion per year by 2030.
Kalshi and Polymarket are the two largest platforms in the space. Together, they recorded about $60 billion in market volume in the first few months of 2026. That already tops the $51 billion in total volume seen across all of 2025.
Kalshi holds more than 90% of the U.S. prediction market share. Weekly trading volume on the platform has grown from roughly $100 million a year ago to more than $3 billion today.
Bank of America analyst Julie Hoover called Kalshi one of the “fastest growing non-AI companies” in the United States. She noted the platform’s growth rates rival those seen during the artificial intelligence boom.
Prediction markets started gaining traction around the 2024 U.S. presidential election. They then continued growing in 2025 as sports, cryptocurrency, and macroeconomic contracts became popular with traders.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani points to three main growth drivers: federal regulatory clarity, mainstream distribution partnerships, and better liquidity compared to state-regulated betting markets.
Blockchain technology is also playing a role. It is enabling global liquidity and allowing platforms to offer contracts on highly specific or niche events, while also lowering the barrier for institutional investors to participate.
Chhugani expects the mix of contracts to shift over time. Sports contracts make up more than 60% of volume today, but he expects that share to be cut roughly in half by 2030 as institutional contracts around economics, politics, and business grow.
New players are entering the market. Robinhood, DraftKings, and Underdog have all launched or are building their own prediction market products.
The sector is not without legal risk. Legal action is currently pending in 14 U.S. states, and four congressional bills are also in progress. Concerns include insider trading and questions over who has the authority to regulate these platforms.
Some states argue they have the right to regulate sports-related prediction contracts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, however, is pushing back and claims sole federal authority over the space.
Chhugani does not expect these challenges to derail long-term growth. He sees platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket benefiting from growing alignment with federal regulators including the SEC and CFTC.
Robinhood’s prediction markets hub is now one year old and is generating $350 million in annual recurring revenue. It accounts for about 30% of Kalshi’s total volume and is Robinhood’s fastest-growing business.
Chhugani named Robinhood and Coinbase as the key public market proxies for investors looking to gain exposure to the private prediction market companies.
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