Ryanair (RYAAY) reported a net loss of €396 million for its fiscal fourth quarter, missing the consensus estimate of €372 million by 6%. Despite the earnings miss, Bernstein SocGen Group held its Outperform rating and nudged its price target up to $78 from $77.
The stock is trading at $54.89, close to its 52-week low of $52.53. InvestingPro data suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its Fair Value.
Bernstein also adjusted its forward earnings forecasts. It cut its underlying EPS estimate for fiscal 2027 by 4.3%, while lifting the FY2028 figure by 0.9%. Forecasts for FY2029 and FY2030 were both reduced, and total revenue estimates were trimmed across all four years.
Bernstein’s language was direct. The firm said Ryanair “thrives when there is blood on the floor,” and that the airline is openly discussing the possibility of competitor failures while building up its cash reserves.
Ryanair holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, giving it flexibility most rivals don’t have right now.
The firm lays out two possible outcomes. Either fuel prices ease, or the industry sees a capacity response — either through voluntary cuts or involuntary bankruptcies. Bernstein says bankruptcies would hurt in the short term but benefit Ryanair more over time.
CEO Michael O’Leary has flagged risks to carriers like Wizz Air and Air Baltic if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed through November. He said persistently high jet fuel costs could push some European airlines into bankruptcy, though Ryanair has hedged 80% of its own fuel costs for protection.
O’Leary did say Ryanair does not expect a jet fuel shortage to affect its own European operations this summer.
Evercore ISI also upgraded Ryanair to Outperform recently, lifting its target to $80. That call followed a 15% pullback in the stock and cited the company’s financial strength as a key reason.
Bernstein’s Euro-denominated target sits at €32, where it reiterated the airline is the “best-positioned name to capitalize in a downturn in point-to-point aviation.”
Ryanair’s stock had also taken a hit after Easyjet updated the market on rising costs and softer booking trends, adding pressure to the broader European low-cost carrier space.
Despite the Q4 miss and the downward revisions to near-term forecasts, the investment case from Bernstein is unchanged: Ryanair is built to outlast the turbulence others may not survive.
Bernstein’s price target of €32 per share on the Dublin-listed stock stands, with the Outperform rating intact following the fiscal 2026 results.
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