Bernstein SocGen Group maintained its Outperform rating on ASML ahead of Wednesday’s earnings report. The firm set a price target of $1,642, which represents 16.6% upside from the current price of $1,407.63.
The stock has already doubled since April. Shares are up about 25% this month alone.
Bernstein expects ASML to beat consensus estimates for the fourth quarter. Import data suggests potential revenue of EUR 9.7 billion. That’s above the consensus estimate of EUR 9.5 billion.
China played a major role in the quarter. Imports from China reached EUR 3.27 billion in Q4. This marks the highest level on record for Chinese imports.
Chinese customers appear to be stocking up on equipment. They placed orders to support leading-edge expansion efforts. These orders include deep ultraviolet technology equipment.
The fourth quarter booking numbers will draw particular attention from investors. This will be the last booking report from ASML.
Bernstein expects a very strong quarter for bookings. Both advanced logic manufacturers and DRAM producers raised their 2026 expectations during Q4 2025.
Investor expectations for bookings have climbed to at least EUR 8 billion. Bernstein believes there could be further upside beyond that figure.
The company serves a unique position in the semiconductor equipment market. ASML is the only maker of EUV tools used in top-tier chips. John West of Yole Group said ASML is “the only game in town” for this technology.
Major chipmakers are planning spending increases across the board. TSMC plans to lift capital spending by 37% to $56 billion in 2026. Samsung Electronics may raise spending by 24% to $40 billion.
SK Hynix could boost spending by 25% to $22 billion. Micron Technology plans a 45% rise to $20 billion.
Analysts estimate about 25% of chip spending goes to chip-making tools. Most of that money flows to ASML due to its market position. This share could grow as AI chips require more complex manufacturing steps.
The company works with all major chipmakers including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Intel Corporation. It benefits from strong demand linked to Nvidia chips.
Demand also comes from firms such as Apple, Alphabet, and Qualcomm Incorporated. These companies need advanced chips for their AI systems.
Mizuho analyst Kevin Wang sees “China business upside” for 2026. Despite competition in older tools, experts expect ASML to maintain its lead. Dan Hutcheson of TechInsights said changing tools now would be too risky for chipmakers.
The company has delivered 22.77% revenue growth over the last twelve months. Analysts give ASML a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target stands at $1,488.64, implying 5.33% upside from current levels.
The post ASML Stock: Why Wednesday’s Earnings Could Beat Expectations appeared first on CoinCentral.
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