BetMGM Stock: Outlook Cut as Prediction Market Competition Bites

TLDR

• BetMGM cut its annual outlook for the second time in 2026, guiding to the lower end of its $2.9B–$3.1B revenue range
• Q2 net revenue came in at $711 million, up 3% year-on-year, driven by 8% iGaming growth
• The $500 million adjusted EBITDA target has been pushed past its 2027 deadline
• Competition from prediction market platforms like Kalshi is raising customer acquisition costs
• Entain (ENT) stock was down 1.61% following the announcement

BetMGM has cut its annual forecast for the second time this year, pointing to growing competition from prediction market platforms as the main pressure point.

🚨 BetMGM Cuts Outlook
Prediction markets heating up…
second guidance cut this year 👀
📊 KEY UPDATES
🔹 Full-year Net Revenue: now expected toward lower end of $2.9B–$3.1B 🔻
🔹 Adjusted Core Profit: toward lower end of $300M–$350M 🔻
🔹 $500M adjusted core profit… pic.twitter.com/AFMfCuT3mO

— Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor (@EmmanuelInvest) July 28, 2026

The company now expects full-year net revenue and adjusted EBITDA to land at the lower end of its existing guidance ranges — $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion for revenue, and $300 million to $350 million for EBITDA.

Q2 net revenue came in at $711 million, a 3% rise year-on-year. iGaming led the way with 8% growth, while online sports revenue was flat. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $74 million.

For the first half of the year, net revenue rose 4% to $1.4 billion. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $99 million, with positive cash generation reported.

Despite that, the numbers weren’t enough to keep management from trimming expectations.

$500 Million Target Pushed Back

BetMGM had previously targeted $500 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2027. That target is now off the table for that timeframe, with the company citing regulatory complexity and a more competitive market.

Platforms like Kalshi have been gaining traction in the U.S., and FanDuel, DraftKings, and Fanatics have all launched similar prediction market products. That’s pushing up customer acquisition costs across the board.

BetMGM holds a 13% GGR share in active markets, keeping it in a podium position for now. The company says it’s focusing on its iGaming offering, omnichannel strength in Nevada, and higher-value customers.

The joint venture is owned equally by Entain and MGM Resorts. Entain (ENT) stock slipped 1.61% on the news.

Entain Under Pressure

Entain’s technical picture isn’t helping the mood. TipRanks’ AI tool flags ENT as a “Strong Sell” on technical sentiment, with a negative MACD and price sitting below key longer-term moving averages.

The company does carry a roughly 3.6% dividend yield, and its most recent analyst rating is a Buy with a £1,000 price target. But with a negative P/E and inconsistent profitability, the valuation case is mixed.

MGM Resorts (MGM) stock was up 1.67% on the day, though that move appeared unrelated to the BetMGM update.

MGM Resorts International, MGM

BetMGM’s current market cap sits at £3.54 billion through Entain’s listed entity.

The company’s Q2 results and the lowered full-year guide are the latest sign that the rise of prediction markets is forcing licensed sportsbook operators to rethink their growth timelines.

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