TL;DR:
The cryptocurrency market is once again on the brink of collapse. Two forces of pressure are converging at an explosive point: massive outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds and the expiration of $5.72 billion in options on Deribit. Traders are on high alert. The question hangs in the air: will this Friday mark the beginning of a new capitulation or the turning point toward an unexpected recovery?
On October 16, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded an outflow of $536.44 million, the largest since August. The capital exodus reveals a clear loss of confidence among large investors. SoSovalue’s charts paint a bleak picture: downward bars, fear, and selling pressure pushing BTC toward its support level at $103,000. If this floor gives way, analysts fear a drop to $100,000.
Ethereum is also unable to escape the storm. Its ETFs recorded withdrawals of $56.88 million, weakening the market structure and bringing the asset closer to a decisive zone. The price of ETH remains at $3,725, after falling 8% in 24 hours and 30.94% in volume. Its support at $3,650 is key; a break could take it to $3,000.
In total, the expiration of $5.72 billion worth of options could exacerbate the collapse or, paradoxically, open the door to a technical rebound. Many analysts at X insist that calm usually follows large expirations: within 24 to 72 hours, short covering and new inflows tend to ease the pressure.
At the close, Bitcoin is trading at $104,625, down 6% in 24 hours and with volume up 45.5%. The RSI is around 38, a sign of oversold conditions, although the MACD still indicates weakness. History repeats itself with Ethereum, which needs to close above $3,850 to confirm a turnaround.
The next two days will be decisive. Between fear, hope, and algorithms, the market faces a test of endurance that will determine whether this bloodbath turns into a rebirth.
