Bitcoin has pushed above the $112,000 mark, showing resilience after dipping to around $108,000 last week. The recovery comes amid mixed signals from derivatives markets, which suggest traders remain hesitant to fully embrace the upward momentum.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading at approximately $112,939 on Monday, according to market data. This represents a modest recovery from recent lows but has not been enough to restore market confidence.
Options data reveals ongoing caution among traders. The BTC options delta skew currently stands at 9%, indicating that put (sell) options are commanding a premium compared to equivalent call (buy) instruments. This typically reflects a degree of risk aversion in the market.
Further evidence of market hesitation can be seen in the options put-to-call ratio, which jumped on Monday. This reverses the trend observed in the previous two sessions and points to stronger appetite for neutral-to-bearish trading strategies.
Bitcoin futures markets present a somewhat more balanced picture. The perpetual futures funding rate sits at 11%, which is considered neutral territory. This marks an improvement from the bearish 4% level seen on Sunday.
Some of the cautious sentiment may stem from Bitcoin’s inability to match the fresh all-time highs achieved by both the S&P 500 and gold. Weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market figures have reinforced expectations of monetary easing.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now assign a 73% probability that interest rates will fall to 3.50% or lower by March 2026. This represents a substantial increase from just 41% one month ago.
Despite the apparent caution in derivatives markets, institutional adoption continues to expand. Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, acquired an additional 1,955 BTC worth approximately $217 million. This brings the company’s total holdings to an impressive 638,460 BTC.
Japanese firm Metaplanet added 136 BTC this week, raising its total holdings to more than 20,000 BTC, valued at over $2 billion. The company has set an ambitious goal of reaching 210,000 BTC by 2027.
El Salvador marked “Bitcoin Day” with a symbolic purchase of 21 BTC, increasing its national reserves to 6,313 BTC. These accumulation trends suggest long-term confidence in Bitcoin despite short-term market hesitation.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $383 million in net outflows between Thursday and Friday. These withdrawals likely unsettled investors even though Bitcoin successfully maintained support above $110,000.
Competition from Ethereum (ETH) as a corporate reserve asset may also be influencing Bitcoin sentiment. Companies have allocated an additional $200 million to ETH over the past week alone, according to data from StrategicETHReserve.
The disappointment that Strategy (MSTR) was excluded from the S&P 500 rebalance on Friday might explain some of the muted enthusiasm among Bitcoin bulls.
In a development that could have far-reaching implications for blockchain adoption, Nasdaq has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to list tokenized equity securities and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The proposal would allow investors to choose between conventional stock trades and blockchain-backed tokens flagged at settlement. If approved, this move would not only modernize financial markets but also highlight the growing relevance of blockchain infrastructure in mainstream finance.
This integration of traditional markets with blockchain technology could potentially provide Bitcoin with indirect exposure through increased trust in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Bitcoin is currently consolidating in what technical analysts describe as an ascending triangle, which is typically considered a bullish continuation pattern. The price is testing resistance at $113,400 while making higher lows since late August.
The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $111,230 is providing support, while the 200-day SMA at $112,777 represents immediate resistance. A sustained breakout above the $113,400 level could target $115,400 and $117,150 in the near term.
Conversely, failure to maintain support at $111,500 could lead to a retest of the $110,000 or $108,450 levels. However, the rising trendline suggests that any dips would likely be corrective rather than indicative of a reversal.
For now, a surge toward $120,000 appears less likely in the immediate term. However, if spot Bitcoin ETFs manage to stabilize their flows, overall market sentiment could quickly improve and set the stage for renewed price momentum.
Bitcoin’s recent price action comes against a backdrop of constrained supply, with more than 19.9 million BTC mined and fewer than 1.1 million left to be issued. This supply limitation, combined with institutional buying, may amplify scarcity pressures in the longer term.
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