Bitcoin has experienced price turbulence following the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ historic revision of US jobs data, but analysts see potential for significant growth as the Federal Reserve prepares for rate cuts. The cryptocurrency recently dipped below $111,000, mirroring declines in US stock markets after the BLS slashed 911,000 jobs from payroll data – the steepest cut in history.
The revision included 880,000 jobs cut from the private sector and 31,000 from government positions. This adjustment pushed unemployment to 4.3%, while August saw only 22,000 new jobs added versus the 75,000 expected by economists.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation remains at 2.9%, raising recession concerns that may prompt the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy.
Bond traders are increasingly confident that the Fed will implement a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with odds now approaching 92%. CME data suggests two more rate cuts could follow by the end of 2025.
“The Fed will be cutting rates into hot inflation because the labor market is weak,” noted market commentator The Kobeissi Letter, adding that “asset owners will reap the rewards.”
History offers a useful comparison. During the 1990-1991 recession, the Federal Reserve cut rates from 8.25% to 3% while core PCE inflation hovered around 4% and unemployment reached 6.8%.
Stocks initially dropped over 20% during this period but rebounded more than 30% the following year as cheaper Fed credit stimulated economic growth.
In the current climate, gold has surged 40% in the months leading up to the BLS revision, with traders having “priced-in [weaker job numbers] for months” already, according to The Kobeissi Letter.
In 8 days, we expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points.
This will mark the first Fed rate cut in 30+ years with PCE inflation at or above 2.9%.
The Fed will be cutting rates into hot inflation because the labor market is weak.
Asset owners will reap the rewards. pic.twitter.com/9rBhTDx4D4
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 9, 2025
Bitcoin has increased 20.30% so far in 2025 under similar conditions. If the historical pattern of lagging correlation with gold continues, BTC may follow gold’s impressive rally.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin appears ready to break above its record high of $124,500.
The cryptocurrency has bounced back from the lower trendline of its rising wedge pattern, suggesting bulls are regaining control. This recovery points to a potential upside target near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $129,000, representing a possible 12% to 15% gain.
Bitcoin continues trading above its 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) at approximately $108,500, reinforcing the bullish outlook and confirming strong support beneath current levels.
A decisive move above the $115,000-$116,000 resistance zone could attract more buyers, accelerating the rally toward new all-time highs and marking the next phase of Bitcoin’s bull cycle.
Market participants remain divided on Bitcoin’s prospects. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee told CNBC that Bitcoin could “easily” reach $200,000 if the Fed implements favorable monetary policies, reflecting Bitcoin’s historical tendency to rally during easing cycles.
In contrast, Derive’s Sean Dawson offers a more cautious view, assigning only a 23% probability that Bitcoin will exceed $140,000 by December. Dawson also warns of a 20% chance BTC could fall below $100,000 if market sentiment turns negative.
ETF activity suggests growing optimism among investors. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have received more than $1.1 billion in inflows over the past 10 days, including $368 million on a single Monday, according to SoSoValue data.
“ETF inflows indicate strong market participation and confidence,” noted Illia Otychenko from CEX.IO. “Investors are essentially betting on a favorable Fed decision to fuel risk appetite, particularly in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.”
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on September 17. While a 0.25% rate cut is widely expected, weaker-than-expected jobs data has led to speculation about a surprise half-point cut.
Bitcoin recently fell from a year-to-date high of $124,200 in August to around $111,000. A double-top pattern formed at $123,027, with the neckline at $111,000. If BTC fails to hold this support, it may retest $105,000, the next key Fibonacci retracement level.
As Bitcoin tests resistance around $111,000, market attention focuses on the upcoming Federal Reserve decision. Recent ETF inflows suggest growing market confidence despite short-term price volatility.
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