Bitcoin faced downward pressure after dropping below $111,000 following shocking US employment data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics cut 911,000 jobs from payroll data in the steepest revision in history.
The cryptocurrency market mirrored declines in US stock markets as recession fears grew. The BLS removed 880,000 jobs from the private sector and 31,000 from government positions.
Unemployment rose to 4.3% while August job additions totaled just 22,000 versus 75,000 expected. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation held at 2.9%.
Despite the weak data, investor appetite for Bitcoin remains strong. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $1.1 billion in inflows over 10 days. A single Monday saw $368 million in inflows according to SoSoValue data.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee maintains his bullish outlook. He told CNBC that Bitcoin could “easily” reach $200,000 if the Federal Reserve implements favorable monetary policies.
Lee’s prediction reflects historical patterns where Bitcoin rallied during easing cycles. His forecast extends to the end of 2025.
Tom Lee said today on CNBC he thinks Bitcoin $BTC could easily hit
$200,000 by the end of 2025
— Tom Lee Tracker (@TomLeeTracker) September 8, 2025
Derive’s Sean Dawson offers a more cautious view. He assigns only a 23% probability that Bitcoin will exceed $140,000 by December. Dawson warns of a 20% chance BTC could fall below $100,000 if sentiment turns negative.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on September 17. CME FedWatch data shows an 92% probability of a 0.25% rate cut.
Weaker jobs data has sparked speculation about a surprise half-point cut. Prediction markets suggest nearly a 20% chance of this outcome.
Bond traders are betting on rate cuts with odds climbing toward 92%. Two more rate cuts may follow by 2025’s end according to CME data.
Historical precedent supports Bitcoin bulls. During the 1990-1991 recession, the Fed cut rates from 8.25% to 3% despite core PCE around 4%. Stocks initially fell 20% but rebounded 30% the following year.
Bitcoin has rebounded from a rising wedge pattern’s lower trendline. This suggests bulls are regaining control with an upside target near $129,000.
The cryptocurrency trades above its 20-week exponential moving average at $108,500. This reinforces the bullish outlook and confirms strong support.
A decisive close above $115,000-$116,000 resistance could accelerate the rally. This would mark the next leg of Bitcoin’s bull cycle toward new highs.
Bitcoin’s current price chart shows it fell from a year-to-date high of $124,200 in August. A double-top pattern formed at $123,027 with neckline support at $111,000.
Failure to hold current support could lead to a retest of $105,000. This represents the next key Fibonacci retracement level.
Gold has surged 40% year-to-date leading up to the jobs revision. Bitcoin has jumped 20.30% in 2025 under similar conditions and may mirror gold’s rally.
The post Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Could Drive Rally To $200k appeared first on CoinCentral.
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