Bitcoin is trading in the $63,000 to $65,000 range after losing roughly half its value from its October 2025 peak near $126,000. BlackRock has framed the decline as a market-positioning correction rather than a breakdown in Bitcoin’s underlying investment case, pointing to leverage, holder selling and changing interest-rate expectations.
The latest on-chain data is also showing a shift in spot demand. Bitcoin’s 30-day apparent spot demand has recovered from about -206,000 BTC on July 23 to roughly -5,000 BTC, placing the measure close to turning positive for the first time since February 26.
BlackRock has identified excessive perpetual-futures leverage as one factor behind Bitcoin’s decline. Leveraged positioning built up during the 2025 rally before falling prices forced traders to unwind positions, adding further selling pressure to the market.
Long-term Bitcoin holders also began rebalancing around the psychologically important $100,000 level. BlackRock has additionally connected the correction to changing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates, which altered the environment for risk assets after supporting markets through parts of 2025.
A December 2025 assessment from the asset manager linked an earlier stage of the decline to higher real yields and forced leverage reductions. A flash crash during that period removed more than 30% of futures open interest, showing how derivatives positioning amplified price movements.
Cooling interest in corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies added another source of pressure. As that theme weakened, companies accumulating Bitcoin no longer provided the same market narrative that had supported demand earlier in the cycle.
BlackRock continues to base its Bitcoin case on institutional adoption, a more supportive regulatory environment, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and its possible role as a portfolio diversifier. The firm has also described Bitcoin’s recent separation from traditional equity performance as supportive of its diversification characteristics.
Large Bitcoin holders have meanwhile increased their positions. Bloomberg has reported that whales accumulated more than $2.9 billion worth of BTC over the past 60 days while Bitcoin consolidated around $63,000 to $65,000.
Source: X
On-chain readings also show wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC reaching a multi-month high while smaller holders reduce exposure. The trend suggests some larger market participants are absorbing supply during the extended correction.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has experienced both inflows and withdrawals during 2026. Those flows show that investor positioning in the ETF has varied even while BlackRock maintains its longer-term Bitcoin investment framework.
Bitcoin’s apparent spot demand is now approaching neutral territory after remaining negative for months. Historical data shows that previous moves from negative to positive spot demand produced a median 18.1% Bitcoin price gain over the following 60 days, with positive returns in 78% of independent cases.
The historical results become stronger when Bitcoin trades in a weaker valuation regime. When spot demand turns positive while MVRV remains below its 365-day moving average, previous cases produced a 23.3% median 60-day gain and an 87% positive-return rate.
Source: Cryptoquant
Perpetual-futures demand has not produced the same historical relationship. Previous futures-demand crossings have recorded median forward returns close to zero, with win rates around 48% to 57%.
Bitcoin spot demand has not yet crossed into positive territory. The next market test is whether the current reading near -5,000 BTC can move above zero while Bitcoin maintains its $63,000-$65,000 trading range.
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