Where is the Bitcoin bottom? That question has gained urgency after Bitcoin fell to nearly $62,000, placing the asset about 50% below its all-time high.
The decline has pushed Bitcoin into a valuation range that has historically coincided with major cycle lows. According to market analyst Rafael, several long-term on-chain indicators now cluster around levels that previously acted as bear market floors.
While no model can identify an exact bottom in advance, current data offers a framework for assessing where support may emerge.
In a recent X thread, Rafael examined several valuation metrics used to identify potential cycle bottoms. He noted that Bitcoin has dropped below the median holder’s breakeven level for the first time since December 2022.
1/ Where is the #Bitcoin bottom?$BTC has fallen to $62K, nearly 50% below its ATH and down 24% in a month.
Price has now worked through the upper rungs of our pricing framework, moving into the cluster of valuation levels where past cycles have found their floor.
— Rafael (@n3ocortex) June 5, 2026
The analyst pointed to the Median Realized Price near $64,100 and the 200-week moving average around $61,700. Together, these metrics form an important support cluster that has attracted market attention.
According to the thread, Bitcoin has spent only about 7% of its history trading below the Median MVRV level. That makes the current price zone relatively uncommon compared with the broader trading history of the asset.
Rafael also outlined deeper support levels beneath the 200-week moving average. These include the Realized Price at roughly $54,000, CVDD near $46,000, Balanced Price around $40,000, and Delta Price close to $35,000. Previous bear market lows have typically entered this range before recovering.
The analysis places particular emphasis on the CVDD model. Rafael noted that across prior market cycles, Bitcoin’s ultimate lows frequently formed within a narrow range above the CVDD level.
According to the data, previous cycle bottoms generally occurred between 1.05 and 1.18 times the CVDD value. While other valuation metrics were occasionally breached, CVDD consistently served as a reliable anchor during major downturns.
With CVDD currently sitting near $46,200, the analyst identified a higher-probability bottom zone between $46,000 and $54,000. This range spans from the CVDD level to the Realized Price and represents the area where historical cycle floors have often developed.
Below that sits a deeper capitulation range between $35,000 and $40,000, defined by the Balanced Price and Delta Price models. Rafael noted that Bitcoin has traded in this lower zone during less than 3% of all trading days.
The analyst also observed that Bitcoin drawdowns have become progressively shallower over time. Earlier cycles recorded declines of approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%.
The current cycle has fallen around 50% from its peak. Although a deeper correction cannot be ruled out, the trend suggests the more likely Bitcoin bottom may reside within the $46,000 to $54,000 range rather than the lower capitulation zone.
Rafael stressed that no valuation model can predict an exact bottom. Instead, investors should view these levels as probability zones that help track changing market conditions.
For recovery, he identified the $75,000 to $79,000 region as the first major area Bitcoin would need to reclaim to signal improving market structure.
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