Bitcoin is currently trading around $116,370 and faces a key resistance level that analysts say must be broken decisively for further gains.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency has established new resistance around $116,000 according to Bitfinex analysts. Bitcoin momentum has faded since hitting an all-time high of $124,100 on August 14.
The price has been pulled below the cost basis of recent buyers who entered during the top in the $108,000 to $116,000 range. This creates headwinds for upward movement.
Bitcoin is up 4.34% over the past seven days as markets await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The Fed announcement comes on Wednesday with high expectations for a rate cut.
Market participants assign a 96.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Some traders are holding out for a larger 50 basis point reduction.
Analysts remain divided on how Bitcoin will react to the Fed’s decision. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee sees the first rate cut this year as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin and Ethereum to make major moves in the next three months.
Ahead of the FOMC, the price is locked in a narrow corridor of 114.6–117.1K, with the High/Low shifted upward – a sign of a constructive trend. The price is holding in the upper third of the range, but without a decisive impulse before the event.
The market is dominated by… pic.twitter.com/TWBPRwXccH
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 17, 2025
However, crypto analyst Ted expressed more caution. He predicts Bitcoin could drop to $104,000 before reversing or fall to $92,000 before rebounding to new highs.
The Fed will cut rates in just 2 days.
JP Morgan and other big analysts are expecting a market dump before reversal.
Scenario 1: $BTC will dump towards $104,000 level before reversal.
Scenario 2: Bitcoin will dump towards $92,000, which also has a CME gap before reversal and a… pic.twitter.com/Pq08pjMABR
— Ted (@TedPillows) September 15, 2025
Rate cuts typically benefit risk-on assets like Bitcoin as traditional investments become less appealing. Lower rates increase liquidity that can flow into speculative markets.
Bitcoin’s 2021 bull cycle was driven largely by ultra-low US rates following the COVID-19 pandemic. Markets remain uncertain about the Fed’s future monetary policy outlook.
Chair Jerome Powell has flagged concerns about inflationary effects from higher trade tariffs. He is expected to address these concerns in Wednesday’s announcement.
Bitcoin exchange reserves dropped to their lowest level since January 2023 this week according to CryptoQuant data. This indicates more Bitcoin is being moved from active trading into private storage.
The trend suggests reduced selling pressure on the cryptocurrency. Less Bitcoin available for immediate sale typically supports price stability.
Stablecoin balances on exchanges are rising simultaneously. This shows active liquidity building up on trading platforms.
The increased “dry powder” suggests investors are positioning for buying opportunities. This could lead to potential price gains in crypto markets.
Long-term holder confidence remains strong according to Bitfinex analysts. The recent sell-off to $107,400 on September 1 was driven mainly by short-term investors.
Investors who accumulated during the February-May correction used the recent bounce to exit profitably. This created meaningful headwinds for further upside momentum.
October 1 marks the start of Q4, historically Bitcoin’s best-performing quarter. The fourth quarter has delivered average returns of 85.42% since 2013 according to CoinGlass data.
Market participants are eyeing this seasonal pattern as a potential bullish catalyst. Historical performance suggests stronger gains could be ahead.
Current crypto market sentiment remains neutral with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index posting a score of 53 on Wednesday.
Other major cryptocurrencies moved in tight ranges ahead of the Fed decision. Ethereum fell 0.8% to $4,492.59 while XRP rose 0.4% to $3.0152.
Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $116,552 by Wednesday morning as traders await the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and guidance on future rate cuts.
The post Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Analysts Split on Reaction to Wednesday’s Fed Decision appeared first on CoinCentral.
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