Bitcoin has gained 3% over the past two days, climbing to around $110,000 as derivatives traders position themselves ahead of key U.S. employment data. The price movement comes after BTC touched $107,300 on Monday, a level that aligns with its short-term realized price.
On-chain data from Glassnode reveals Bitcoin’s Cost Basis Distribution shows strong buyer support. This metric identifies price levels where large amounts of supply have been accumulated or distributed. Bitcoin’s spot activity appears denser than Ethereum’s, with transactions clustering tightly across recent price levels.
The density suggests strong buyer conviction. Historically, this type of activity has provided more durable support than futures-driven momentum alone.
Exchange flow data supports the recovery thesis. CryptoQuant data shows Coinbase recorded consistent netflow spikes between August 25-31. This occurred immediately after its 30-day simple moving average hit the lowest level since early 2023.
Sharp reversals from multi-year lows often indicate liquidity regime changes. These can result from settlement restructuring or preparations for higher exchange activity.
Binance saw its 30-day moving average netflow reach the highest level since July 2024 on July 25 and August 25. This level has historically coincided with reaccumulation phases before new local highs.
The simultaneous Coinbase low and Binance peak suggests reserve redistribution. This pattern could set the stage for upward price movement.
Long-term holder spending has accelerated in recent weeks. The 14-day moving average is trending higher, though activity remains within normal cycle ranges and below October-November 2024 peaks.
Technical analysis shows Bitcoin breaking above Monday’s $109,900 high during Tuesday’s New York session. Lower timeframes including 15-minute and one-hour charts now display bullish structure breaks.
The four-hour relative strength index has reclaimed levels above 50. This reinforces growing bullish sentiment among traders.
For the recovery to continue, Bitcoin must clear resistance between $112,500 and $113,650. A decisive close above $113,650 would confirm a bullish break on the daily chart.
Such a breakout would invalidate the descending trendline that has limited price action for two weeks. Success could open paths toward targets at $116,300, $117,500, and $119,500.
Bitcoin options traders are making bullish bets for September 26 expiry. Open interest has built up at $120,000, $130,000, and $140,000 strikes according to Dervie research.
Market makers are net long gamma, meaning price increases will likely be dampened by hedge selling. Similarly, price drops would be minimized as dealers buy to hedge positions.
Open interest on perpetual contracts has increased 2.35% to $30 billion over two days. Traders are positioning ahead of this week’s employment figures.
The current price movement shows flat cumulative volume deltas with increased passive bids at 10% order book depth. The price bump is not driven by aggressive buying but rather passive accumulation.
Bitcoin’s implied volatility over 30 days holds near 30%, reflecting recent subdued price movements. However, the one-week 25 delta skew jumped from 6.75 to 12 overnight, showing demand for downside protection.
The shift indicates traders expect contained markets but are hedging against sudden drops. Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls report will likely determine immediate direction.
A strong jobs report would limit September’s traditional weakness rather than spark major rallies. The Federal Reserve appears likely to cut rates by 25 basis points, though failure to cut would make September more challenging.
September’s bearish seasonality remains a concern for traders. Failed breakouts or sustained weakness below $113,650 would leave Bitcoin vulnerable to downside targets between $105,000 and $100,000.
The post Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Derivatives Traders Eye $119K Breakout Despite September Historical Weakness appeared first on CoinCentral.
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