Bitcoin Faces Pivotal $118K Test: Next Move Could Confirm Rally or Reset Price Cycle

TLDR:

• Bitcoin trades near $118K, a zone traders see as critical for confirming or rejecting the current bullish structure.
• Analysts say RSI exhaustion is not yet clear, leaving room for a push toward $120K–$122K before a decision point.
• Glassnode data shows strong support near $110K–$114K, where much of the circulating supply was recently acquired.
• A break above $122K could invalidate the macro correction theory and open doors to a fresh all-time high.
  

Bitcoin is testing resistance levels that could decide whether the current rally has more room to run. Price action is moving toward $118,000, a key level many traders are watching closely. Momentum has held up longer than expected, keeping bulls in play. 

Some analysts warn that rejection here could confirm a deeper pullback. The next few days are shaping up to be critical for short-term direction.

Bitcoin Price Targets Face Tight Range

Market watchers are pointing to $118K as the next key resistance. 

Analyst CasiTrades shared that BTC has already tested the .5 retracement near $116K without showing the expected RSI exhaustion. This leaves room for one more push toward the 0.618 retracement zone, aligning with the $118K level.

Bitcoin’s Next Move Will Confirm or Deny the Macro Correction $BTC is approaching the key resistance levels I highlighted in my last update!! We’ve already tested the .5 retracement near $116K, but so far we aren’t seeing the type of RSI exhaustion we’d expect at a major… pic.twitter.com/SfsLFwBCaV

— CasiTrades (@CasiTrades) September 12, 2025

If Bitcoin fails at this zone, traders expect a deeper retracement before any attempt at new highs. A break through $118K could send the price toward $120K–$122K, where exhaustion signals would be closely monitored. 

CasiTrades noted that a sharp rejection in this range could confirm a larger correction structure. For now, traders are watching RSI behavior for clues on the next move.

Julio Moreno pointed out that Bitcoin treasury companies trade at a premium because of volatility and fast accumulation. 

However, volatility has dropped to multi-year lows, and treasury purchases have slowed. A pickup in both would help maintain that premium and bring new demand back to the market.

Support Levels Provide Cushion

On-chain data from Glassnode shows a dense cost basis distribution near $110K–$114K. This is where a large portion of recent supply was acquired. Analysts say this zone should provide a cushion if price rejects from current levels.

The next major supply cluster sits near $117K, which may act as resistance if price retests this level. 

Traders expect any failed breakout to pull back toward this support before forming the next major swing. This makes the $118K–$122K range crucial in setting the next direction.

Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution highlights dense support around $110k–$114k, where a large share of supply was acquired. The next major supply zone sits near $117k, which may provide resistance if price tests this level.

Chart Link: https://t.co/gBon0DUfsQ pic.twitter.com/1PX0FTq1ow

— glassnode (@glassnode) September 12, 2025

With price consolidating under resistance, traders are balancing risk carefully. A clear breakout above $122K could invalidate the macro correction idea completely. If that happens, attention could shift toward the possibility of a new all-time high later in the cycle.

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