Meta Stock Could Surge 57% if BNP Paribas Is Right About AI Compute

TLDR

• BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones maintained a Buy rating on META with an $855 price target, implying 57% upside from current levels.
• Meta could monetize excess AI compute capacity through short-term or strategic cloud deals, but only when internal demand falls short.
• CEO Mark Zuckerberg confirmed at the May shareholder meeting that selling excess compute is “definitely on the table.”
• BNP expects Meta’s core ad business to keep growing, with cloud services acting as an additional revenue stream.
• Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus on META, with 38 Buys, 5 Holds, and an average price target of $752.18.

Meta Platforms has spent heavily on AI infrastructure, and now Wall Street is starting to see a potential return on that spend beyond advertising.

BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones set an $855 price target on META stock after meeting with company executives, implying roughly 57% upside from current levels. He kept his Outperform rating in place.

META was trading around $544 at the time of the note.

Meta Platforms, Inc., META

The idea is straightforward. Meta has built a large amount of computing power to support its AI products. If internal demand ends up lower than expected, the company could sell that unused capacity to outside parties.

But this would not make Meta a traditional cloud provider. Management is clear on that. The goal is to monetize AI intelligence, not rent out raw compute power like a typical data center business.

Any cloud deals would be short-term or strategic in nature. Meta wants to keep most of its infrastructure focused on its own products and services.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg addressed this publicly at the company’s May shareholder meeting. He said selling excess compute was “definitely on the table,” but explained that Meta had not done so yet because it still expects to use the capacity itself.

BNP Expects Ad Business to Stay Strong

Jones also pointed to Meta’s core advertising business as a source of durable growth. He sees the ad segment continuing to perform well, with cloud revenue acting as an added layer on top.

The analyst believes Meta can eventually generate enough revenue to justify its heavy capital spending. Cost discipline, he added, should help margins expand once the current investment cycle matures.

Capital expenditure is expected to keep rising through 2027 before the revenue picture becomes clearer.

Supply Constraints a Risk After 2028

One area of caution flagged by BNP is infrastructure supply from 2028 onward. Management is watching for potential bottlenecks tied to power availability and the broader political environment around computing infrastructure.

Jones is ranked 285 out of 12,488 Wall Street analysts on TipRanks.

The broader Wall Street view on META is also positive. Analysts have a Strong Buy consensus based on 38 Buys and 5 Holds in the past three months. The average 12-month price target sits at $752.18, implying around 38% upside.

BNP’s $855 target sits well above that consensus, making it one of the more aggressive calls on the stock right now.

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