Boston Scientific’s stock hit a 52-week low of $59.32 on Monday, capping a brutal stretch that has seen the stock fall more than 37% since January.
Boston Scientific Corporation, BSX
The selloff traces back to a few key events that hit in quick succession.
First, the company announced its acquisition of Penumbra, a medical device maker focused on neurovascular and peripheral vascular conditions. The deal was priced at $374 per share, and investors weren’t happy about it.
Then came Q1 earnings. On paper, the numbers weren’t bad — revenue came in at $5.2 billion, up 11.6% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of $0.80 beat consensus. But management cut its full-year organic growth guidance to 6.5–8.0%, down from prior estimates, and lowered its adjusted EPS outlook for the year.
That guidance reset sent analysts scrambling.
Truist Securities dropped its price target from $90 to $85. Canaccord made the biggest cut, slashing its target from $109 to $71. RBC Capital moved from $105 to $100, and Jefferies went from $110 to $100. BTIG trimmed its target to $80 from $90.
Despite the cuts, most of those firms held onto their Buy or Outperform ratings on BSX.
The company also announced a $2 billion share repurchase program for Q2, which could provide some floor for the stock.
One of the clearest pressure points for Boston Scientific right now is the pulsed field ablation market. The company is losing ground to competitors in a space it once had a strong position in.
The Penumbra integration is also creating friction. Merging a company of that size doesn’t happen overnight, and the early signs are that it’s not going smoothly.
BSX is now trading at a forward earnings multiple of around 17.79x. A year ago, that number was close to 37x. That’s a steep compression in valuation in a short time.
InvestingPro puts BSX’s Fair Value at $74.84, suggesting the stock may be trading below what the fundamentals support. The stock’s PEG ratio sits at 0.34, which some analysts flag as a potential indicator of undervaluation.
One data point worth watching: in rolling 10-week periods going back to 2004, BSX has posted a positive return about 52.8% of the time. When the stock has been under prolonged bearish pressure — as it is now — that probability nudges slightly higher to around 54%.
The forward projection from that model puts BSX in a range of $59 to $64 over the next 10 weeks, with a peak probability around $62.
The most recent data point: BSX closed at $59.32 on Monday, its lowest level in a year.
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