ASML Stock Drops 5% But Cantor Fitzgerald Says 70% Upside Still on the Table

TLDR

• Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Overweight rating on ASML with a EUR2,500 price target, implying roughly 70% upside from current levels.
• The firm raised EPS estimates across all periods, projecting stretch-goal EPS growth of 13%, 16%, 18%, and 20% versus consensus for 2026 through 2029.
• Lithography intensity is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2027, with 3D DRAM not expected to enter the market for another decade.
• Corient Private Wealth raised its ASML stake by 8.5% in Q2, bringing its holding to approximately $435 million.
• ASML stock has a 12-month high of $1,999.96 and opened at $1,687.43 on Friday, down roughly 5.5% on the day.

Cantor Fitzgerald has reaffirmed its Overweight rating on ASML, keeping its EUR2,500 price target in place. At current prices around $1,687, that target implies roughly 70% upside. The firm also maintains ASML as a Top Pick.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

The stock opened at $1,687.43 on Friday and was down around 5.5% on the session. Its 12-month range runs from $798.51 to $1,999.96, and it carries a market cap of approximately $617 to $663 billion depending on the source.

Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its EPS estimates across every forecast period. The firm now projects stretch-goal EPS growth of 13% above consensus in 2026, 16% in 2027, 18% in 2028, and 20% in 2029. Those upgrades came following recent lithography unit checks.

The firm expects lithography intensity to pick up in the second half of 2027. It does not see 3D DRAM entering the market for at least another decade. Cantor noted that 6F2/4F2 investments have accelerated both low NA and high NA spending by DRAM manufacturers.

On the regulatory side, Cantor Fitzgerald views risk from the MATCH Act as minimal. That removes one potential overhang investors had been watching.

ASML’s Capital Markets Day is scheduled for June 2027, which could serve as a catalyst for updated guidance and long-term targets.

Institutional Buying Continues

Corient Private Wealth LP increased its ASML position by 8.5% during Q2, adding 17,214 units to bring its total to 218,728, valued at around $435 million. Institutional investors collectively own about 26% of the company.

Other firms also added exposure. Binnacle Investments boosted its stake by 78.9% during Q2. Resources Management Corp CT ADV grew its position by 1,150% in Q4, though from a very small base.

Analyst Sentiment

The broader analyst community remains constructive. Sanford C. Bernstein raised its price target from $1,971 to $2,623 with an Outperform rating. JPMorgan lifted its target from $2,200 to $2,400 with an Overweight rating. The average price target across all analysts stands at $1,970.33, with a consensus rating of Moderate Buy.

Of 32 analysts tracked, 4 rate it Strong Buy, 21 rate it Buy, 4 have a Hold, and 3 have a Sell.

ASML posted Q2 EPS of $8.65 on revenue of $10.62 billion. Net margin came in at 30.11%, with return on equity at 52.71%. Full-year EPS consensus sits at $44.99.

The company also recently paid a quarterly dividend of $2.1507 per unit, representing an annualized yield of around 0.5%.

Freedom Broker separately raised its price target to $2,100 from $1,650, citing customer demand exceeding current production capacity.

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