Why Is Casey’s (CASY) Stock Down 10% After a Strong Earnings Beat?

TLDR

• CASY stock dropped 10% after reporting fiscal Q1 results, despite beating earnings and revenue estimates.
• EPS came in at $7.37, beating the $6.78 analyst consensus; revenue hit $5.68B vs. $5.56B expected.
• Inside same-store sales grew just 3.2% year-over-year, while fuel same-store gallons sold dipped 0.3%.
• Operating expenses rose 8% to $754.1 million, driven by higher store count, credit card fees, and labor costs.
• Management held fiscal 2027 guidance steady without raising it, which may have disappointed investors.

Casey’s General Stores (CASY) stock dropped around 10% on Monday after the company reported fiscal first quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates on the top and bottom lines, but left investors wanting more.

Casey’s General Stores, Inc., CASY

The stock closed at $733.49 before the post-earnings move. The sell-off came even as CASY cleared the bar set by analysts on both earnings and revenue.

Casey’s posted EPS of $7.37 for the quarter, well above the $6.68 to $6.78 analyst consensus. Revenue came in at $5.68 billion, topping the $5.56 billion to $5.57 billion forecast.

Net income for the quarter was $273.72 million, up 27.1% from $215.36 million a year earlier. Diluted EPS jumped 27.7% year-over-year from $5.77.

CASEY'S GENERAL STORES $CASY Q1’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $5.68B (Est. $5.57B) 🟢
🔹 EPS: $7.37 (Est. $6.75) 🟢; +27.7% YoY
🔹 EBITDA: $485.1M (Est. $478M) 🟢; +17.1% YoY
🔹 Inside Same-Store Sales: 3.2%

Affirms FY27 Guide:
🔹 EBITDA: +8%-+10%
🔹 Purchase of Property… pic.twitter.com/5qyVleMxIf

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) September 8, 2026

Total revenue rose 24.3% compared to the prior year quarter, driven largely by a 36.3% surge in retail fuel revenue.

Where the Numbers Fell Short

Inside same-store sales increased just 3.2% year-over-year. Fuel same-store gallons sold slipped 0.3% from a year ago.

Prepared food same-store sales rose 4.8%, led by pizza. Grocery and merchandise same-store sales grew 2.7%, helped by non-alcoholic beverages.

Operating expenses increased 8% to $754.1 million in the quarter. Casey’s attributed the rise to a higher store count, credit card fees, and labor costs.

Management kept its fiscal 2027 outlook unchanged and did not raise guidance. That’s likely what stung the most for investors expecting an upgrade.

The existing fiscal 2027 forecast calls for same-store sales growth of 2% to 5%, fuel gallon same-store sales of negative 1% to positive 1%, and earnings growth of 8% to 10%.

Store Growth Continues

Casey’s store count reached 2,959 locations at the end of July, up from 2,944 at the end of April, a net addition of 15 stores in the quarter. The company plans to open at least 120 new stores in fiscal 2027.

Around 71% of its locations are in towns with populations under 20,000. The company now has 240 stores with car washes and 294 EV chargers across 68 stores in 14 states.

Casey’s maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.65 per share, payable November 13 to stockholders of record as of November 1.

Heading into the report, CASY had already fallen 14% over the prior month after a strong rally. The stock is still up 35.51% over the past 12 months.

The 15 Wall Street analysts covering CASY hold a consensus Moderate Buy rating, based on 10 Buy and five Hold calls issued in the last three months.

The average price target of $931.46 implies about 27% upside from current levels, though those targets may be revised following the earnings release.

Casey’s saw 10 positive EPS revisions and 3 negative revisions in the 90 days leading up to the report.

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