Coinbase reports first-quarter earnings Thursday after the close, and the bar is already low.
Analysts expect earnings per share of just $0.06, a steep drop from $0.24 in Q1 2025. Revenue is forecast at $1.49 billion, down from $2.03 billion in the same period last year. That would mark the company’s lowest adjusted earnings in two years.
COIN stock is down 13.6% year-to-date, sitting around $197.96.
Bitcoin is still more than 30% below its October peak, despite recovering roughly 20% over the past month. That cooler crypto environment has dragged on trading volumes across the board.
Analysts expect Coinbase to report Q1 trading volume of $222.9 billion, according to FactSet. That’s down from $271 billion in Q4 2025 and well off the $393 billion posted in Q1 2025.
Robinhood’s earnings last week didn’t help the mood. The rival platform reported a 47% drop in crypto trading revenue for Q1. Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev put it bluntly: “After haunting HOOD last week, we believe the Crypto El Niño is likely heading towards COIN’s 1Q26 results.” Mizuho rates COIN Neutral.
Earlier this week, CEO Brian Armstrong announced a 14% workforce reduction. The company cited “current market conditions” and the need to “optimize operations for the AI era,” per a regulatory filing.
Coinbase is also expected to post a net income loss for the quarter, with year-over-year declines across nearly all business units.
Not everything looks bleak. Stablecoin revenue — earned from reserves tied to its USDC partnership — is expected to climb 45% year-over-year to $327 million. That segment has quietly grown into a meaningful chunk of Coinbase’s profits.
The company has been deliberate about reducing its reliance on volatile transaction fees from retail traders. Late last year, it said it would begin offering stocks, tokenized stocks, futures, and prediction market contracts.
Coinbase is also watching Washington closely. The company is deep in a lobbying fight over a landmark crypto bill, pushing to protect its ability to offer customers interest on stablecoin holdings.
That battle with the banking industry hasn’t been resolved, but Coinbase appears close to getting what it wants.
Of the 38 analysts tracked by FactSet, 23 carry the equivalent of a Buy rating on COIN. Four have a Sell. The average price target sits at $239.27 — well above where the stock trades today.
Thursday’s report will be the first real look at how Coinbase held up through a rough stretch in crypto markets. Investors will also be listening closely to Armstrong’s comments on the path forward.
COIN was trading at $197.96 as of Tuesday’s close.
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