Nebius Group has had a strong run in 2026, up 120% year-to-date and delivering a 173% return over the past year. But a fresh analyst cut is now putting that momentum to the test.
DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria lowered his price target on NBIS stock from $250 to $175 on Monday, ahead of the company’s Q2 2026 earnings report due August 12. The stock currently trades at $191.53, placing it above the new target.
Luria kept his Neutral rating in place but flagged serious concerns about construction progress at Nebius’ Vineland facility in New Jersey.
The firm carried out a site visit and attended a city council hearing to assess the situation firsthand. Based on that review, Luria does not believe the facility is on track to deliver 328 MW of active power by year-end.
That matters because Nebius needs to grow its connected power capacity from around 170 MW at the end of 2025 to between 800 and 1,000 MW by the end of 2026.
At the same time, the company is targeting a revenue run rate jump from $1.9 billion as of March 2026 to somewhere between $7 billion and $9 billion by December 2026. That is a steep climb in a short window.
Luria said the Vineland delays may remove upside from the company’s 2026 guidance. He also warned it could put the broader narrative around Nebius at risk.
“We fear that the narrative on Nebius could change and the ability to convert contracted power to connected power and then into active power (revenue) may be put into question,” Luria wrote.
Nebius has carried a 21% valuation premium on backlog compared to rival CoreWeave (CRWV), and a 172% premium to Oracle’s AI cloud. Those premiums depend on execution staying on track.
Luria acknowledged that Nebius has built a strong reputation, backed by an experienced management team, rapid scaling of contracted gigawatt capacity, and a better capital structure than peers. The company also holds a stake in Clickhouse, which Luria views as a solid ancillary asset.
Wall Street is forecasting a wider loss per share of $0.72 for Q2 2026, compared to $0.38 in the same quarter last year.
Revenue is expected to come in at $569.89 million, representing 442% growth year-over-year. Demand for AI cloud computing is the main driver behind that estimate.
Options data points to a potential 13% stock move around the earnings release on August 12.
Piper Sandler has a Neutral rating on NBIS with a $224 price target. Baird holds an Outperform rating with a $250 target, citing Nebius’ strength in AI inference. InvestingPro data suggests the stock is currently slightly overvalued relative to its Fair Value.
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